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Category: Leader approval ratings

Jeremy Corbyn is an unconventional politician, the normal rules of politics and polling don’t apply to him

Jeremy Corbyn is an unconventional politician, the normal rules of politics and polling don’t apply to him

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Some underestimate just how good a campaigner Jeremy Corbyn is and crucially he likes campaigning. There’s been quite a lot of comment about Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour not polling well enough against the Tories to ensure he becomes Prime Minister after the next general election. But my hypothesis is that the only time we should judge Corbyn is during a general election campaign. I’ve got this feeling those people are once again underestimating Corbyn because he’s not a conventional politician, he’s…

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Labour’s Brighton exuberance over Corbyn isn’t supported by his leader ratings

Labour’s Brighton exuberance over Corbyn isn’t supported by his leader ratings

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Things have barely moved since June 8th Opinium – Leader Approval ratings From the David Cowling leader rating compilation. Opinium which asks on leader approval pic.twitter.com/H4eVHOc691 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 25, 2017 Ipsos-MORI – Leader Satisfaction Ratings David Cowling has just produced some interesting tables plotting party leader ratings change over 6 months. Ipsos-MORI Satisfaction pic.twitter.com/C4VJwXcoM4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 25, 2017 The former BBC Political Research chief, David Cowling, has produced the above tables so we can…

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The Lord Adonis guide to predicting elections: The best leader wins – nothing else matters

The Lord Adonis guide to predicting elections: The best leader wins – nothing else matters

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The LAB peer and former cabinet minister, Andrew Adonis, has a fascinating essay in the latest edition of Prospect on the best guide to election forecasting. His conclusion is encapsulated in the headline above – the party with the leader perceived to be best wins and nothing else matters. He opens by recalling a Guardian article by Jonathan Freedland when Brown was PM and when many in the Labour party were demanding a new debate on “the issues” “Freedland cautioned…

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The GE2017 gloss starts to come off Corbyn

The GE2017 gloss starts to come off Corbyn

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His YouGov favourability drops a net 13% on June For only the second time since the shock General Election outcome YouGov has carried out a favourability poll on the main parties and their leaders and the contrast with the post election survey is striking. Theresa May is moving up a notch though still in deep negative territory. She was a minus 34 – that’s down to 27%. Corbyn is going in the other direction. He was level pegging in June…

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At last! Mr. Trump shakes hands with a leader who has worse leader ratings than he does – Mrs. May

At last! Mr. Trump shakes hands with a leader who has worse leader ratings than he does – Mrs. May

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One of the most worrying features for Mrs. May following her failed GE17 gamble and her determination to stay in the job has been the sharp move downwards in her leader ratings. Whether the format has been about favourability, satisfaction, approval or doing well/badly she has seen a very sharp reversal since June 8th. Trump has had poor ratings right from the start and in recent weeks the President has seen his net favourability numbers down at a net minus…

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It is the trend in TMay’s YouGov “best PM” ratings that should really worry the Tories

It is the trend in TMay’s YouGov “best PM” ratings that should really worry the Tories

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The miniscule lead with YouGov that Corbyn now enjoys as “best PM” is not what should concern her party but the trend which is illustrated in my chart above. It all peaked in the first polling after she made the brave, and in retrospect disastrous, decision in April to go for a general election three years ahead of schedule. Then she was a walloping 39% ahead. As can be seen this has moved steadily downwards ever since and now she…

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If indeed GfK is part of a conspiracy against Corbyn then how come other pollsters have similar numbers?

If indeed GfK is part of a conspiracy against Corbyn then how come other pollsters have similar numbers?

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There’s a fierce attack in the Canary on GfK and its research director known well to PBers, Kieran Pedley. The chart says it all and shows all three sets of published leader ratings in March. And you know what – all the numbers are very close – the Canary favourite Corbyn is doing appallingly however you look at the numbers. So if there is a conspiracy against Labour’s bed-blocker leader then Opinium and Ipsos MORI are involed as well. The…

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