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Category: Leader approval ratings

The extraordinary change in Johnson/Starmer leader ratings in just two weeks

The extraordinary change in Johnson/Starmer leader ratings in just two weeks

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And just two weeks later I find it very difficult to explain such a huge change within 2-weeks even though that period did include the May 6th local elections. Certainly, all the media narrative following the elections was questioning Starmer’s position and Labour’s performance which was reinforced by the party’s loss of the Hartlepool Westminster by-election. But in the counts that took place on the Friday and Saturday some less good results for the Tories emerged particularly in Oxfordshire, Cambridgeshire,…

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These elections remind us that leader ratings and supplementaries are a better predictor of electoral outcomes than voting intention

These elections remind us that leader ratings and supplementaries are a better predictor of electoral outcomes than voting intention

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Regular readers of this website know that Mike Smithson and myself really value the various leader ratings and supplementaries as they are often a better pointer to election outcomes and these recent elections are further proof of that. Based on the tweets atop this thread I wrote a piece in March saying that Mark Drakeford’s Labour party were in a much better position than the voting intention figures suggested thanks to the munificent leadership of Mark Drakeford, it is clear…

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Johnson-Starmer approval ratings – the great regional divide

Johnson-Starmer approval ratings – the great regional divide

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The above chart has been prepared from the latest Opinium poll which came out for the Observer this evening. Rather than look at the voting numbers which show the Tories with an overall 9% lead what I am focusing on here is how the approval ratings for the two men match up region by region. As can be seen Boris is doing well getting better net figures than Starmer in most of England outside of London but the Labour leader…

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The Scottish leader ratings suggest that LAB might beat the Tories for second place

The Scottish leader ratings suggest that LAB might beat the Tories for second place

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Ever since the SNP came to power in Scotland at the 2011 Holyrood elections I have paid more notice of leader ratings north of the border than voting intention numbers. Then at this stage the voting polls had SLAB in the lead but the then SNP leader Alex Salmond, totally dominated the leader ratings. On that basis I was posting on here saying that the SNP represented good value to win at odds longer than evens. Salmond had totally outshone…

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Starmer’s still got an approval ratings edge but not in places where it matters

Starmer’s still got an approval ratings edge but not in places where it matters

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One of the things that is rarely done in polling analysis is to look at geographical breakdowns breakdown like in the chart above based on the latest Opinium poll. In this case it is really important to take notice of this because of the huge gulf that it portrays between how Johnson and Starmer are perceived in London compared with views a hundred or so miles up the motorway in the Midlands and then the North. The clear pattern is…

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At GE2019 LAB was led by a man who had negative ratings even amongst those who had voted for the party 2 years earlier

At GE2019 LAB was led by a man who had negative ratings even amongst those who had voted for the party 2 years earlier

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How the opposition leader’s ratings collapsed in the final few days Yesterday I found myself looking back over some GE2019 polling and one of the remarkable things that I don’t think had been picked up at the time is in the panel above. These were YouGov’s last favourability ratings before the general election and as can be seen Corbyn was in negative territory almost across the board even amongst those who had voted for the party two and a half…

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Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results

Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results

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Some posters to this site have argued that leader or government approval ratings can be a better guide to general election results than the voting intention question, if not immediately before the vote, then early in the Parliament or in mid-term.  I have been meaning for some time to put this to the test.  I have used the IPSOS-MORI opinion poll and approval ratings data, which goes back to 1977, covering 11 general elections.  Conclusions I have found: three years…

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