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Category: Labour

Is this simply about name recognition?

Is this simply about name recognition?

PoliticsHome What do we think of the PH/Evening Standard poll? There’s a new poll tonight by PoliticsHome for the Evening Standard on who the public would prefer as the next Labour leader. The figures are in the chart above. The shares were: STRAW 16%: JOHNSON 13%: MILIBAND-D 8%: HARMAN 6%:PURNELL 1%: MILIBAND-E 1%: CRUDDAS 1%: SMITH 1%: MCDONNELL 1%: COOPER 1%: BURNHAM 1%. Compared with the last the PH poll there’s been an increase in support for Johnson and Harman…

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Could it soon be pay-day for Jacqui Smith punters?

Could it soon be pay-day for Jacqui Smith punters?

Mail Online Surely she can’t survive at the Home Office? One of the forms of political betting which William Hill seemed to have made their own is on whether named politicians are going to be able to survive in their posts. Other firms and Betfair always seem reluctant to get into “will he/she survive” betting and you have to admire William Hill for always being ready, it seems, to take wagers on troubled politicians who are in the news. Betfair,…

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Does this suggest a very low turnout on June 4th?

Does this suggest a very low turnout on June 4th?

Ipsos-MORI What will it do to the campaign if the EU is not an issue? We are just four weeks and two days from the final national election test ahead of the general election – and hardly anybody seems to have noticed. The one betting market – on whether or not Labour’s share will drop below 20% – says it all. That’s all that the media, pundits and punters seem to be interested in. For the political narrative is almost…

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Johnson becomes the favourite to succeed Gord

Johnson becomes the favourite to succeed Gord

PoliticsHome100 But is he good value at 4/1? Two developments during the day on the Labour leadership – the PH100 panel of MPs, senior political journalists, key party strategists and think tank leaders – came out overwhelmingly to say that Alan Johnson would pose the biggest treat to the Tories. A total of 70% of those who took part backed the health secretary. At the same time on the betting markets Johnson moved into the favourite slot for the first…

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Is Alan the only one with a strategy to fight Dave?

Is Alan the only one with a strategy to fight Dave?

Could his approach curtail Labour’s losses? Over the long holiday weekend there’s been a lot of comment about the health secretary Alan Johnson and whether under his leadership the coming general election would not be as bad for Labour as some are suggesting. What the Johnson backers are not explaining is the “how” – the reason why, of all the current crop of leading ministers he is the only one with a well thought out and effective means of dealing…

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Is it stupid to say “it’s the economy stupid”?

Is it stupid to say “it’s the economy stupid”?

Is John Curtice right about what moves the polls The phrase “It’s the economy stupid” has been quoted time and time again since being first used by the Bill Clinton campaign in 1992 that it’s almost accepted as gospel by many who observe and comment on the political process. Indeed the great hope that Gordon Brown and Labour are clinging onto is that by the time that the general election finally happens then the economy will have got past the…

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A Tale of Two Pollys: 2006 and 2009

A Tale of Two Pollys: 2006 and 2009

Guardian Online March 26 2006 Guardian Online May 2 2009 What a difference three years makes? There’s already been a fair bit of discussion on Polly Toynbee’s Saturday column and thanks to Mirthios on the previous thread for digging out the 2006 rendering. What a contrast? Both are worth reading in some detail. Perhaps the most powerful article this weekend is from Nick Cohen in the latest Standpoint under the heading “‘Fear and Filth at Brown’s Number 10”. This left…

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Why did 313 Labour MPs ignore this polling?

Why did 313 Labour MPs ignore this polling?

UKPollingReport They can’t claim that it wasn’t all predicted It’s suddenly become fashionable in the Labour party to be a Brown-sceptic. Hardly a day goes by before some new faction within the movement starts raising questions about his style of leadership and electability. Yet they were all warned two years ago.. For in the year before Brown’s coronation a vast body of polling evidence built up that Labour would do much worse with him as a leader than the standard…

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