Surely she can’t survive at the Home Office?
One of the forms of political betting which William Hill seemed to have made their own is on whether named politicians are going to be able to survive in their posts.
Other firms and Betfair always seem reluctant to get into “will he/she survive” betting and you have to admire William Hill for always being ready, it seems, to take wagers on troubled politicians who are in the news. Betfair, in its heyday, used to be great with this form of market but then everything changed in early 2004 when it decided to “go respectable”.
Well one of these markets looks as though it might be near an outcome. For with the latest story in the Daily Mail that she pays council tax as though her constituency home was her main one it’s becoming harder to see how she can carry on. There’ve been suggestions that Brown might even make cabinet adjustments ahead of the June 4th elections.
All this has been unearthed by a Freedom of Information Act request. I wonder whether those who drafted Labour 1997 manifesto realised the problems this legislation would create for the party twelve years on.
I know that I’m not alone amongst PBers in having a fair bit of money riding on Jacqui Smith being replaced. I’ve got two wagers – one that she’ll be out during 2009 and another that she’ll step before the general election.
Assuming that she does go then the focus will be on her successor. This will also boost interest in the Ladbrokes who’ll be in the job on December 31st market – where I’ve got 5/1 Ed Balls, 50/1 John Reid and 100/1 David Blunkett. The overnight prices were Jacqui Smith 7/4, Ed Balls 11/4, Harriet Harman 8/1, and James Purnell 10/1. Blunkett is now into 14/1 with Reid still at 50/1.