The markets think he’s going in 18 months – don’t believe it Judging by prices in the When will Blair go market the expectation is that Tony Blair will be handing over to Gordon Brown or AN Other within the next eighteen months. It’s just 2/1 against him making the change this year and 5/4 against him stepping down in 2006. You can get a massive 20/1 against Tony Blair still being Prime Minister on January 1st 2010. It’s the…
Prepare for an early promotion for the former advisor Before Christmas we were saying that that the 5/1 then available against David Blunkett returning to the cabinet during 2005 was a great value way of betting on Labour to be top party. That proved to be a profitable punt. Now a similar bet is available on who will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer. For if Gordon Brown, now just 2/9 to become next Labour leader, does make it…
After three victories and they call him a vote loser! Whatever your political allegiances it is hard not to feel a touch of sympathy for Tony Blair. After delivering his party’s third successive General Election victory the first thing he has to face when meeting his MPs again is dissent and calls for him to step down quickly. To have pulled of this triumph and to have seen off his fourth Tory leader is an incredible achievement – particularly against…
One of the quirks of modern British politics is that for the last twenty-six years whoever has been the Prime Minister has sat at Westminster for a seat on the A1 trunk road. Margaret Thatcher’s Finchley rests at the southern end of the main route to Edinburgh; John Major’s Huntingdon is on the A1 as it goes through Cambridgeshire and Tony Blair’s Sedgefield covers both sides of the highway in County Durham. So is this “rule” which has lasted a…
Who will “win” this final contest? With leadership issues dominating both main parties in this post-election period Hills have opened a new market on which of Michael Howard or Tony Blair will stand down first. The current prices are 1/7 on Howard going before Blair and 4/1 against Blair going before Howard. With the pressure continuing to build on Mister Blair, as everybody now seems to be calling him, the 4/1 looks good value. In the Labour leadership stakes, meanwhile,…
Will there be Flight-style sackings of the 17 who’ve signed the anti- Iraq ticket? With the Tory leader, Michael Howard, under pressure for being too tough over Howard Flight’s comments on tax how is Tony Blair going to deal with dissent within his own party by a group MPs who have signed up to making the Iraq war a key “issue of trust” at the general election. According to the Independent this morning 17 of them have signed a declaration…
Could winning the popular vote be Michael Howard’s consolation prize? If the poll trends stay where they are at the moment then it is possible that the post-election political environment will be dominated by whether Labour supporters turnout in the 450-500 seats where their vote won’t make a difference. Quite simply if enough Labour supporters stay away from the polls in these seats then the party could be second to the Tories in terms of overall votes even though it…
Has it all been set up so Gordon can come to the rescue? Anybody thinking of backing Labour on the Commons spread markets should do it before the budget while prices are at their current levels. Because the perception is that Labour’s campaign is going poorly there’s been a steady decline in the party’s price which is now 9-10 seats down on the end of January. The current spread prices are totally out of kilter with what the opinion polls…