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Category: Labour

Could the Tory race affect the Labour succession?

Could the Tory race affect the Labour succession?

Brown’s price eases from 0.23/1 to o.4/1 As the chart shows the implied probability of Gordon Brown succeeding Tony Blair, based on the best betting price, has moved sharply since the high-spot of the Chancellor’s speech at the Brighton conference just a month ago. Although this is a very light market with little liquidity it is clear that there the near certainty that last month’s 0.23/1 Brown price suggested has been affected by what has been going on in the…

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Milburn “ready to stand against Brown”

Milburn “ready to stand against Brown”

Cherie Blair and Mandelson said to be encouraging him to stand The former Health Secretary, Alan Milburn, is reported by the Sunday Telegraph this morning to be ready to mount a challenge to Gordon Brown when Tony Blair eventually steps down as Labour leader. According to the paper’s political editor, Patrick Hennessy, a Milburn aide is reported as saying that “When the time comes, Alan will be very well positioned to challenge Gordon..He does not expect to win – but…

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Why don’t punters believe Mr. Blair?

Why don’t punters believe Mr. Blair?

Betting price implied probability of Blair remaining until Jan 2008 or beyond So what is happening with the Labour succession? The Tory leadership, the by-elections and the Walter Wolfgang eviction have over-shadowed what surely, because Labour is the governing party, the most important question in British politics – when will Tony Blair hand over to Gordon Brown? By Monday lunch-time things seemed a little bit clearer. One potential rival to Gordon Brown after another had given their public backing to…

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The uncertainty continues for Davis and Brown

The uncertainty continues for Davis and Brown

… Does yesterday make the Gordon-David show a touch less likely? After the events of this week the one almost sure thing that you can predict about the next General Election is that Oxford University’s stranglehold on UK politics will be broken. For the first time since Stanley Baldwin in 1935 an election looks set to be won by someone who was educated at a University other than Oxford. The only exceptions in the past 70 years, Churchill and Major,…

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The ball’s back in Blair’s court

The ball’s back in Blair’s court

Labour’s ping-pong continues as the PM’s aides say Brown is being “presumptuous” On what will surely be the biggest day in British politics since the General Election Tony Blair is making his big conference speech in Brighton and the Tories will announce the result of their ballot on how Michael Howard’s replacement will be chosen. In the immediate aftermath of Gordon Brown’s speech yesterday all seemed clear – the Chancellor was giving the Prime Minster the accolades and was using…

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New Labour RENEWED – the winning formula for the 4th term?

New Labour RENEWED – the winning formula for the 4th term?

Huge moves in Brown’s price as markets react to the Chancellor’s speech Based on best betting prices the implied probability of Gordon Brown being next Labour leader touched more than 80% this morning as punters took stock of the Chancellor’s conference speech and news of his forthcoming Middle East trip. Brown’s unveiling of “New Labour renewed” will set the backcloth to the expected transition from Tony Blair and has clearly been designed to allow the Prime Minister to step aside…

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Could Blair make an announcement in a matter of days?

Could Blair make an announcement in a matter of days?

Was the decision taken while on holiday? The big unanswered question over-hanging British politics is when will Blair step down? When will he make his big announcement? When will the baton be passed on to Gordon Brown? We have long taken the view that this will happen later rather than sooner and that he would serve most of his third term. Now we are not so sure and next week’s Labour conference, which Tony Blair is surely not looking forward…

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WANTED – Another David Blunkett Market

WANTED – Another David Blunkett Market

Will he be promoted, sacked or just remain in his current job? It’s been a profitable twelve months for punters betting on David Blunkett – the former Home Secretary who resigned in December during the Kimberley Quinn paternity saga and then was invited by Tony Blair to return to the Cabinet as Pension Secretary just five months later. On December 1st we said bet at 7/2 against Blunkett having to step down before the end of the year. Then on…

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