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Category: Labour

“Blair is about to go” rumour sets off betting surge

“Blair is about to go” rumour sets off betting surge

What are we to make of the “Blair going” market moves? The implied probability, based on best betting prices, of Tony Blair leaving by the end of this year – within six weeks – has started rising again following the big surge last week after the 90-day detention defeat. The chart maps how punters have being viewing Blair’s possible imminent departure Meanwhile the bookmakers, William Hill, have reported taking string of bets from punters who believe an announcement that Tony…

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Will Cameron keep the Blair wheels turning?

Will Cameron keep the Blair wheels turning?

Is supporting the Government the right opposition strategy? With yesterday’s 2-1 lead in the YouGov poll of Tory members and this morning’s endorsements from William Hague and Liam Fox we now regard David Cameron’s victory in the Tory leadership race as a forgone conclusion. Given that a significant proportion of the members have already voted only tragic events, surely, can stop him from doing it. Those punters, like me, who ignored the Times’s coverage of Wednesday’s Populus poll have done…

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The money goes on an early Blair departure

The money goes on an early Blair departure

Probability of him being there after December 2007 now rated at 24% For all our focus on the Tories in recent weeks the big question in UK politics is still the timing of Tony Blair’s departure from Number 10. Our chart illustates how punters are rating Blair’s chances of still being in the job after December 2007. This is based on best betting prices and underlines how damaging yesterday is being seen. After the first ever Commons defeat the speculation…

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Markets move sharply against Blair and Labour

Markets move sharply against Blair and Labour

Punters think they’ll be leaving 42 weeks earlier After a week which has seen the Blunkett resignation; the Government’s majority being reduced to one on the Terror Bill, and an opinion poll showing the Tories only two points behind there’s been big movement on the betting markets. Punters having been moving out of Labour as the next General Election winners and the prices on the “When will Blair go” indicate a much earlier departure than gamblers were ready to risk…

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Christmas must be coming – there’s a Blunkett resignation market

Christmas must be coming – there’s a Blunkett resignation market

Blunkett 7/4 to be out by New Year’s Day At last! William Hill have just opened a market on whether the Work & Pensions Secretary, David Blunkett, will survive in his post until the end of the year. The price is 7/4 that he’ll be out by then and 2/5 that he’ll survive. As yet it does not appear to be online but we’ll let you know as soon as it is. Sadly the price is nothing like as good…

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Is time running out for Tony?

Is time running out for Tony?

Should you be betting on an early departure? With more calls for David Blunkett to resign and after a week which has seen one Cabinet row after another spilling into the public domain the chances of Tony Blair serving a full third term must be slightly lower. On top of the spats over education policy, smoking, and the reform the benefit system, the attack on Blunkett is particularly damaging – because he is seen as being so close to Blair….

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Punters getting nervous about a Labour 4th term

Punters getting nervous about a Labour 4th term

Chances rated at lowest level since the General Election After a week which has seen highly publicised cabinet splits over education policy and smoking and a month that has been dominated by the Tory leadership race there’s been a move against Labour on the betting markets. The chart shows the implied probability of Labour winning most seats at the next General Election based on best betting prices. A month ago Labour was rated at 66-67% – this morning the figure…

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How dangerous is it for Blair if the Tories agree with him?

How dangerous is it for Blair if the Tories agree with him?

Could NuLab be forced into playing a different tune? A key part of the success of Tony Blair’s New Labour has been the way it has occupied traditional Tory policy positions thus forcing the official opposition to the right. Time and time again the Tories have found themselves with little to say on an issue because Labour has adopted their position. This might be about to change. For the current debate over Labour’s education reform programme is giving a glimpse…

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