But are things really so bleak for “Teflon Tony” ? The chances of Tony Blair surviving until New Year’s Day 2008, as rated by gamblers on the “When will Blair go” markets, have again plummeted to the low 20s. They are not quite at the low they reached after November’s Commons defeat on the terror bill but they are getting quite near. But have gamblers got this one right? Given Blair’s stated intention of serving a full third term the…
Will Labour elect Brown even if the opinion polls are against him? From the way punters are reacting on the betting exchanges Labour’s big beneficiary from the emergence of David Cameron is that other Oxford-educated 2001 Commons’ entrant, David Miliband – the Minister of State for Communities and Local Government. The chart showing the implied probability of success based on the best betting exchange price and illustrates the move to Miliiband in the past month. He’s now at 7.2/1 and…
Can the Prime Minister survive 2006? It was Peter Oborne in the Spectator earlier in the month who observed that David Cameron and Gordon Brown had an extraordinary shared strategic purpose – they both want Tony Blair out as soon as possible. Brown’s desire to take what he regards as rightly his is probably the most documented political drama of modern times – and the longer he has to wait the greater the chance of something going wrong. Cameron’s desire…
Brown succession worries cause Balls price to ease One market we have not looked at for some time is “who will succeed Gordon Brown as Chancellor?” In one of those quirks that sometimes happen on betting markets the close Tory colleague of David Cameron, George Osborne is now 5/1. For Osborne to be Brown’s successor Tony Blair has to continue right up to the General Election, the Tories have to win, and David Cameron has to decide to leave Osborne…
Is it because only they think he’s doing worse on the economy? While the big focus in the past few days has been on the Lib Dems the major leadership issue in UK politics is on Labour because who is chosen to succeed Tony Blair will almost certainly become Prime Minister. Charles Kennedy’s future has almost no impact on that one way or the other. The full data-set from Populus ‘s December Times poll that had Cameron’s Tories beating Brown’s…
PB.C’s Blair Survival Index rises to 28% The second poor poll rating in five days on how a Brown-led Labour party would do against Cameron’s Conservatives has led to changes in the betting markets on when the Prime Minister will stand aside. As the chart shows the implied probability of a post 2007 departure reflected by the way punters are risking their cash has moved sharply upwards as the whole UK political scene is re-assessed following the Tory changes and…
Can he win if people don’t like him? Tucked away in the YouGov poll that came out on Tuesday afternoon were some numbers that might be at the heart of the Labour succession and the 2009/10 General Election campaign. Electors might agree with Gordon Brown’s policies, they might respect him as a politician but they do not seem to like him. When asked whether four named politicians had “an attractive personality” the ratings were:- David Cameron 23%: Tony Blair 18%:…
Punters continue to move away from the Chancellor Politicalbetting’s Gordon Brown Index based on the best betting prices on him becoming next Labour leader shows a further decline in gambling assessment of the implied probability of him doing it. The move coincides with this afternoon’s Pre-Budget statement when he had to concede that growth forecasts had been slashed to half the figure that he reported in March. From a peak of 80% in July this evening’s calculation puts the Index…