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Category: Labour

What are the chances of McDonnell running and coming second?

What are the chances of McDonnell running and coming second?

How about this for a good Labour leadership bet? The spread betting firm, Cantor Spreadfair, have an interesting market on the Labour leadership which offers a neat profit opportunity on John McDonnnell, if you think he’s going to run and come in second. The firm has created a spread market so that 25pts awarded to the next Labour Party leader and 10pts to the runner up. All others will settle at 0pts. If there is no contest then 25pts are…

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Captured: Is this the moment when Miliband’s career ended?

Captured: Is this the moment when Miliband’s career ended?

Will Gordon forgive the Environment Secretary’s QT gaffe? These two screen shots show the expression on David Miliband’s face within a few seconds of his gaffe about Gordon Brown during BBC’s Question Time on Thursday. For as we have noted before the still photograph is often much more revealing than a moving image. By going through the recording frame by frame it’s apparent that the youthful Environment Secretary realised immediately the implications of what he had said. For he had…

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Dare Gordon risk upsetting Rupert’s plans for ITV?

Dare Gordon risk upsetting Rupert’s plans for ITV?

Is this a way of for Gordon to distinguish himself from the Blair era? According to the Independent this morning there is a big campaign going on at Westminster to block BSkyB (Chairman R. Murdoch) from gaining effective control over ITV. More than 60 MPs have signed up to a motion calling on the Government to use its special powers to prevent such a move taking place. They want it referred to the Competition Commission. The MPs fear that with…

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Guest slot: David Herdson on Labour leadership betting

Guest slot: David Herdson on Labour leadership betting

Who’s betting against Gordon? Conventional wisdom has it that Gordon Brown will become Labour leader and Prime Minister sometime this year. So why aren’t the markets showing the same confidence in him? His odds on the Betfair exchange have been 0.20/1 plus or minus a few hundredths for over two months now after dropping dramatically in October last year. Although we don’t know exactly when the succession will be, we do know that we’re getting closer to it and so…

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Will Gordon be the ultimate loser in the honours affair?

Will Gordon be the ultimate loser in the honours affair?

Why don’t voters believe that he’s telling the truth? This single line of data from the Populus poll for February could point to the first big challenge for Brown in the post-Blair world. For if the Yates inquiry does lead to charges then the line-up of opposition attack dogs – from the Tories to the Lib Dems, the SNP and PC – will have no real interest in Blair himself. He’s yesterday’s man and toast. The big target will be…

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Big Populus boost for Blair, Labour and Brown

Big Populus boost for Blair, Labour and Brown

Survey shows the gap down to just 1% with the Chancellor in charge This morning’s Populus survey in the Times shows that all the pundits who were predicting poll doom and gloom for Labour in the polls because of Blair’s position had got it wrong. The shares with changes on January are: CON 36% (-3): LAB 33% (+1): LD 19% (+1). The fieldwork took place during the weekend when the media was full of honours stories. Even better from the…

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Is this where Blair’s fate could be decided?

Is this where Blair’s fate could be decided?

What poll news would be the “tipping point” for the Prime Minister? On the first floor of this ordinary looking office block next door to the Job Centre in Bedford is a 100 station calling centre operated by the pollster, ICM. It’s the firm’s largest facility and is where a whole or a large part of the field-work for not just ICM polls takes place. For it might come as a surprise to learn that ICM carries out surveying work…

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Do the calls for his early exit have public support?

Do the calls for his early exit have public support?

Would going early be seen as an admission of guilt? The above are a couple of screen shots that I took of Tony Blair on Sunday during his Davos BBC interview when everybody was commenting on how he looked and his whole demeanour. What we know now but did not not know then was that a couple of days beforehand he had had his second interview with the police and he must have been aware of what was likely to…

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