Is Jackie Ashley right about the departure time-table? I’ve just discovered this piece by Jackie Ashley in the Guardian today in which she makes a fairly confident assertion about the Labour succession time-table. If she’s right, and she is known to be very close to the Brown camp, then it looks as though we are heading for a Q3 departure – which has hardened in the past week to become the 0.62/1 favourite. The only problem with the bet is…
Brown – the solution or part of the problem? In the wake of the biggest ICM lead for the Tories since 1987 the former Home Secretary, Charles Clarke, has called on the young Environment Secretary, David Miliband, to run for the leadership against Gordon Brown. Whether Miliband will heed the call we do now know but there’s clearly a lot of questioning going on in the party at the moment and a group that could be influential might be the…
Are there similarities between Brown’s “inevitable” success and Hillary’s? Our chart this morning shows the changing betting price on Brown for the Labour leadership over the past month and illustrates how market sentiment has moved against the “near certainty” of the 0.19/1 best price that was available before the Guardian’s ICM February poll. The mood began moving back to the Chancellor but then in the past three days we have seen the price ease again. Is it now time to…
Will his own union not give his leadership bid its blessing? If Gordon did not look such a certainty for the Labour leadership then this latest news about unions backing could have been an enormous blow. For as the Mirror writer, Kevin Maguire, notes in a blog piece on the Mirror web-site there a real chance that the new super union made up of Amicus and the T&G might not give Brown its endorsement. This union, when the merger goes…
Report – “Did Levy try to get Blair aide to modify evidence?” On the day that Populus reports some disastrous polling figures for Labour and Gordon Brown (see previous thread) more information about what’s been going on in the cash for honours inquiry has been printed in the Guardian this morning. This follows the refusal of a judge to grant an injunction against the paper. According to the lead story detectives are investigating whether Lord Levy urged Ruth Turner to…
55% of voters want a “younger, newer, less experienced, rising star†The March survey by Populus for the Times follows the trend of the other recent telephone polls and shows a big increase in the Labour’s gap behind the Tories. The headline figures with comparisons on February are: CON 38%(+2): LAB 30%(-3): LD18%(-1). So last month’s 3% deficit has increased to 8% – which equals the biggest ever lead the pollster has recorded for the Conservatives. A month ago when…
YouGov reports a large lead for the International Development Secretary The boss of YouGov, Peter Kellner, has emailed me with further information from this morning’s poll of 589 constituency members of the Labour party and 662 levy-paying union members. For as well as the issues featured in the Daily Telegraph the survey asked how respondents would vote in the deputy leadership ballot. The details will be posted on the YouGov webs-site during the day but Kellner has confirmed to me…
Brown would beat Miliband by 52% – 25% A YouGov poll of 1,115 Labour members for the Daily Telegraph this morning has found overwhelming support for a leadership contest when Tony decides to call it a day. A total of 73% said they thought a contest was better against just 11% who thought the Chancellor should get the job unopposed. In such a vote Brown would command 63% with 21% saying they would reject him. But if a strong candidate…