Is this what you look like when you are “Browned off“ Just going through the video of yesterday’s PMQs I was so struck by two brief cutaways of Kelly, Milliband, Denham and Blears as their leader was wrangling with Cameron over the Irish referendum result that I took the above screen shots. The four don’t look happy bunnies at all. Miliband, of course, is the 5/2 favourite to succeed Gordon while Denham is at 7/1. Yet what can they do…
Have minister judged the public mood correctly? Shortly after David Davis formally resigned this morning the Labour party confirmed that it would not be putting up a candidate in the Haltemprice and Howden by-election. The decision was not unexpected particularly as the Labour PPC in the constituency is, or was, an opponent of his party’s 42 day detention without trial plan. It also avoids the embarrassment of having to deal with rebel Labour MPs who have said they will be…
Could the birthday week of judgement set the ball rolling? Next Friday, on June 27th, Gordon will be celebrating his first anniversary as Prime Minister and we are going to see a lot of commentators, like Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian, giving their verdict on the first twelve months. And given how events have unfolded this could provide the peg for a lot of critical analysis of his leadership style and further questions about his future. Freedland was a pretty…
Mail on Sunday …and Labour MPs say they will support the Tory’s stand? An ICM for the Mail on Sunday taken on Friday of adults in Haltemprice and Howden, shows massive support for the area’s MP as he seeks to resign his seat and fight a by election over Gordon’s move to increase to six weeks the length of time suspects can be held without trial. The main findings are summarised in the panel above. Asked how they would vote…
Does the DUP deal create a hostage to fortune? Gordon has pulled off a victory when all seemed lost and this must take the pressure of him for the time being. My 5/1 and 6/1 bets on him not surviving 2008 look like losers. But Labour might have stored up a real problem in the “bribes” that were extracted out of the government by the DUP in exchange for their votes. A major part of Labour general election rhetoric was…
A Guest slot by HenryG Let’s make no bones about it, the survival of the Labour Party is now heavily reliant on funding from trade unions in the short to medium term. As a result, trade union influence appears to be a topic discussed more and more. Yesterday’s Guardian includes details of some of the action at the GMB annual conference. The report gives a clear message that MPs will be named and funding withdrawn from their constituency parties if…
How much credence should we give to polls two years before the day? There’s a great facility on the ICM website for those who want to check back on polling history. Just restricted to those commissioned by the Guardian, which is by far and away the longest media relationship in the UK industry, you can sort results how you like and, of course, check back on each monthly survey and compare it with the following general election. Just before Christmas…
A guest article from Tim Dodds There’s much talk about Labour dumping Gordon Brown before the next general election. Here are some considerations, from my perspective, that may count in Labour’s deliberations: One thing is certain; the game is on for a new leader. The final plays in the game may not be this year, next year, or even before the next general election. But make no mistake Gordon Brown is in an unrecoverable position. The horizon ahead of him…