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Category: Labour leadership

Is Labour’s electoral system like “Animal Farm”?

Is Labour’s electoral system like “Animal Farm”?

Should some animals be more equal than others? One of the aspects of Labour’s leadership election that has not really been questioned is the system itself. For unlike what has become the norm in other parties the choice of Labour leader is not determined by a membership ballot in which all votes have equal value. Instead different values are attached to each vote depending on whether you are an ordinary member, an MP/MEP, or you pay the political levy to…

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Could EdM’s tax credit gaffe cost him the leadership?

Could EdM’s tax credit gaffe cost him the leadership?

Should there be higher rates for people in the South? I’ve just had this email from HenryG – our regular Labour commenter from the North East. He writes: ” CLP activists are up in arms at this idea of Ed Miliband’s to pay people South more in tax credits that those in the North. It was flagged up in my local paper today and one of our MPs has jumped on it. This is a dubious idea at the best…

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Why’s the best equipped contender set to come last?

Why’s the best equipped contender set to come last?

Is Balls paying the price for supporting Gordon? Judging by the opinion polls, the list of nominations and the number of endorsements then the one near certainty about the race for the Labour leadership is that Ed Balls isn’t going to win. On all the measures he is a long way behind and it’s hard to see what could change in the final four weeks before the ballots go out. Yet if you look at what the five have said…

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Has David Miliband done a Jim Hacker?

Has David Miliband done a Jim Hacker?

Is saving “British Pubs” like saving the “British Sausage”? We all, I’m sure, remember the great episode of “Yes Minister” when Jim Hacker sought to change the media narrative by launching a campaign to “save the British sausage”. I just wonder whether Labour leadership front-runner, David Miliband, has found his equivalent with a been a big campaign just launched to save Britain’s pubs which he says are closing at about 40 a week. Before the election, he notes, Labour’s Minister…

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Polling Labour’s leadership election

Polling Labour’s leadership election

Candidate Unions actual Unions YouGov Members actual Members YouGov Cruddas 27.27% 15% 13.89% 12% Harman 13,05% 16% 19.62% 17% Johnson 13.65% 26% 24.24% 24% Benn 14.79% 22% 12.81% 24% Hain 19.92% 15% 14.43% 13% Blears 11.31% 7% 14.97% 9% YouGov in the 2007 Deputy race The above shows the YouGov projections and the actual first round shares in the final YouGov poll before the 2007 Labour deputy race. As can be seen the big variance was in the union section…

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Punters pile on Mili-D after YouGov?

Punters pile on Mili-D after YouGov?

But could the race still produce a surprise? It was inevitable that the first opinion surveys restricted to those who can actually vote in Labour’s election was going to spark off a fair amount of activity on the betting markets. The big move has been to the elder Miliband where the best bookie price is now 1/2. His brother Ed has moved out to 7/4 while Balls/Burnham/Abbott are now seen an rank outsiders with almost no chance whatsoever. On Betfair…

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Is DaveM Labour’s only realistic choice?

Is DaveM Labour’s only realistic choice?

Why I’m reducing my exposure on Ed There have been a few bits of news this week that have caused me to reconsider my betting position on Ed Miliband. Firstly there’s the campaign itself and the relentless and successful way that DaveM is pursuing the “front runner” strategy. He’s got more MPs and local parties and he also showed flair with the visit to Gillian Duffy which ended with him getting her backing. Secondly there was the argument by James…

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Would Yvette have been better than any of them?

Would Yvette have been better than any of them?

Is this the leader that Labour should have chosen? Earlier in the month on BBC1’s “This Week” Ed Balls revealed that if his wife, the former Work and Pensions Secretary, Yvette Cooper, had wanted to run for the Labour leadership then he would have stood aside for her. So I wonder how the couple will feel when, later today, UNITE the biggest union with nearly a million potential voters in this leadership race, announces formally that Ed Miliband is being…

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