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Category: Labour leadership

Corbyn will win but he is popular with the wrong people at the wrong time for the wrong reasons

Corbyn will win but he is popular with the wrong people at the wrong time for the wrong reasons

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Surfing a wave of superficial attractiveness can only get so far There is no good reason for believing that Jeremy Corbyn is not going to win the Labour leadership. The polls have all pointed heavily in that direction, constituency nominations have favoured him ahead of his rivals, union nominations (and organisation) will count for even more, and the late and huge surge of voters joining up to take part cannot rationally be explained other than as an active endorsement of…

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Revised analysis of YouGov’s LAB selectorate poll has Corbyn with 57% of first preferences

Revised analysis of YouGov’s LAB selectorate poll has Corbyn with 57% of first preferences

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Via @AlbertoNardelli The report in the Times about Corbyn being on 57% with YouGov pic.twitter.com/K28q62af0H — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 14, 2015 The President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, explained in a separate article that they had looked at the polling figures again in the light of the data from the party showing the huge influx of names in the final few days. He goes on:- “..I have taken the support YouGov found in each of these groups and adjusted the…

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Don Brind: Why having an “electable” leader matters so much

Don Brind: Why having an “electable” leader matters so much

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The great chronicler of US presidential elections, Theodore White, tells the story of a Democratic candidate for minor office in New York who complained to the local party boss that the party had issued no publicity with his name on it. Go down to the harbour, he was told. Look at the Staten Island ferry. When it comes in to dock it drags harbour garbage in its wake. “Franklin Delano Roosevelt is your Staten island ferry, ” An “electable” leader…

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On the eve of the LAB ballots going out – a party at war

On the eve of the LAB ballots going out – a party at war

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The front page of today's "I" sums up Labour's crisis pic.twitter.com/A8HSVmtAoK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2015 Now LAB's most successful election winner intervenes in the leadership election. http://t.co/ov2rIWMldq pic.twitter.com/AKL8meWiLl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2015 Corbyn price on the Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/ymMnpNwTcD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2015

The practical guide to centre-left schisms

The practical guide to centre-left schisms

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The Labour party leadership election has left the Blairites looking isolated.  Some of Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters have described them as viruses and cancers, and have suggested that they look for the exit.  Every Blairite from Tony Blair and Liz Kendall downwards has disavowed the idea of leaving the Labour party, but vows are spoken to be broken, and given the bitterness and the ideological divide they might in due course consider their options. Before doing so, they should look at…

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Trade union machinations to help Corbyn aren’t necessary – if YouGov is right he’ll win easily anyway

Trade union machinations to help Corbyn aren’t necessary – if YouGov is right he’ll win easily anyway

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Remember how the trade unions got round the rules at LAB’s last leadership election The mail-pack featured above, from the GMB union to those of its members entitled to vote in Labour’s last leadership election, played a pivotal role in 2010 in securing the prize for the younger Miliband brother. It was developed for the GMB, UNISON and UNITE unions as part of a plan to get round a Labour party ban on candidates’ promotional materials being included in the…

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By this time next week a large part of Labour’s selectorate will have cast their votes

By this time next week a large part of Labour’s selectorate will have cast their votes

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Time is running out for the ABC (Anbody But Corbyn) campaigners Although it will be just over a month before the result in Labour’s leadership election will be announced the ballot packs go out on Friday. The experience of postal voting is that electors tend not to leave their ballots hanging around and fill them in very quickly. So a week today we must assume that a sizeable proportion of the selectorate will have filled in their ballots and put…

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Corbyn set to win on the first round according to sensational YouGov LAB leadership poll

Corbyn set to win on the first round according to sensational YouGov LAB leadership poll

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Dramatic changes in the betting YouGov's Peter Kellner says “I would personally be astonished if Mr Corbyn does not end up as Labour’s leader" — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 11, 2015 To think that Corbyn only got enough MP nominations to be on the ballot because Team Burnham thought it smart to "lend" him some — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 11, 2015 61% of women in YouGov LAB poll support Corbyn compared with 48% of men in the sample —…

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