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Category: Labour leadership

Understanding the Cooper surge

Understanding the Cooper surge

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As with other bookies Yvette Cooper's chances on Betfair have improved in the last 36 hours, she's now 2nd favourite pic.twitter.com/3iYuOS9Qnl — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 4, 2015 As with other bookies Burnham's chances on Betfair have declined in the last 36 hours, he was 2nd fave now 3rd fave pic.twitter.com/OWNzzoj5Nb — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 4, 2015 Ladbrokes: 74% chance Corbyn will win #Labour vote. Cooper overtakes Burnham as main threat. http://t.co/taExTpXAwj pic.twitter.com/BVUyXDZker — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) September 4, 2015 In…

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Six days until the ballot closes and some people still haven’t received their ballot papers

Six days until the ballot closes and some people still haven’t received their ballot papers

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Hmmmm http://t.co/DKqC19NDFL pic.twitter.com/9NZRzrOAZS — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 3, 2015 Last night the Guardian reported that Labour members and supporters have begun protesting to the party about their lack of ballot papers with less than a week to go before the leadership election closes. The party initially promised that 99.9% of its electorate would have received ballot papers by 28 August, but it is now refusing to disclose how many of the 554,000 have been sent out.  A initial batch of…

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Will Labour “go to the mattresses” if Corbyn wins?

Will Labour “go to the mattresses” if Corbyn wins?

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Don Brind hopes that peace will break out There’s nothing erotic about going “to the mattresses”, as fans of the Godfather know. It’s violence not sex that Sonny Corleone has in mind when he declares that unless the Corleone clan get what they want “it’s all-out war, we go to the mattresses.” (It’s not safe for the “soldiers” to stay at home while the bloodletting ensues so they camp out in warehouses on those mattresses) Fears that the Labour party…

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Why Corbyn might not win the Labour leadership

Why Corbyn might not win the Labour leadership

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All the ingredients for Corbyn to lose are there The Labour leadership contest seems to share a lot of the characteristics of the 2015 general election. We have the overwhelming enthusiastic social media support for a flawed candidate (that might not end up actually casting their vote), shy Tories*, the polls showing only outcome and betting sentiment heavily in favour of the polling outcome. We’ve only had two public polls on this leadership election and the potential sampling and weighting…

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Getting ready for the expected Corbyn victory – leading party figures change their approach

Getting ready for the expected Corbyn victory – leading party figures change their approach

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Why have Umunna and others changed their tone on Corbyn? Because they don't want to be blamed if he fails. #r4today — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) September 2, 2015 Asked where he agrees with Corbyn, Umunna cites industrial strategy and changing the structure of the economy. #r4today — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) September 2, 2015 Umunna doesn't rule out serving in a Corbyn shadow cabinet if he changes his programme. But odds are still against it. #r4today — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) September…

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Predict the winner and first round shares in the LAB leadership ELECTION in PB’s prize competition

Predict the winner and first round shares in the LAB leadership ELECTION in PB’s prize competition

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The closest will get a £100 free bet from William Hill Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter vote shares down to decimal points for four contenders as well as naming the overall winner of the election. The prize will go to the person with the smallest overall error who has correctly named the winner. I am delighted to announce that William Hill has agreed to provide a competition prize of a free £100 bet. If the…

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September opens with Corbyn continuing to dominate the Lab betting but with a little bit more interest in Cooper

September opens with Corbyn continuing to dominate the Lab betting but with a little bit more interest in Cooper

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Eight more days before voting closes The LAB leadership Betting has been pretty stable since the YouGov poll last month that had Corbyn on 55% on first preferences. Inevitably he’s become the overwhelming favourite as can be seen by the chart. The only recent movement has been with Yvette Cooper who was out as a 5% chance last week and had seen a tightening. At the same time there has been a slight easing of the Corbyn price from a…

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Now most LAB leadership votes are in Osborne moves to undermine the likely winner

Now most LAB leadership votes are in Osborne moves to undermine the likely winner

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Guardian's Andrew Sparrow says Osborne’s Faslane announcement is CON plan to frame Corbyn. http://t.co/ApC9o124Zx pic.twitter.com/AU8XrBH9BD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 31, 2015 The Tory attack on Corbyn and his party has begun For the last four months the Tories have been almost totally disciplined about the LAB leadership election. There’ve been virtually no comments whatsoever in public until now. Today, with George Osborne’s Faslane announcement things have changed. This is Andrew Sparrow in the Guardian: “Osborne is keenly aware that…

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