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Category: Labour leadership

Tomorrow we might get an indication if Corbynmania is all mouth and no ballots

Tomorrow we might get an indication if Corbynmania is all mouth and no ballots

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A victory for Baroness Jowell might give hope to the Anyone But Corbyn movement Assuming no more problems, sometime on Friday Labour will announce who has won the race to be their candidate for London Mayor. It could be that the result of this race could help be a pointer to the Labour leadership result. Lady Jowell as a Blairite should theoretically be the least appealing candidate to the returning left that have so dominated the electorate for these elections. A…

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Reminder: There’ve been only 2 published LAB polls the latest a month ago

Reminder: There’ve been only 2 published LAB polls the latest a month ago

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At this stage in 2007 deputy race Alan Johnson was odds-on favourite as was DavidM in 2010 Unlike in the 2010 Labour contest there has been no published polling of those eligible that has taken place since voting actually started. Last time the final YouGov poll was carried out about 6 days after the ballot packs went out and a key question was whether people had actually voted at that stage. This time the final poll was published just as…

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Why I voted Kendall 1, Cooper 2, Burnham 3

Why I voted Kendall 1, Cooper 2, Burnham 3

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Yvette Cooper is now Labour’s best hope for returning to power argues Keiran Pedley but it’s important that Liz Kendall does well. Has there been a more turbulent 6 months in the history of the Labour Party? I am sure there has but it is hard to imagine. If we rewind but a few months, many thought that Labour was heading for government with Ed Miliband as Prime Minister and yet now it is genuinely quite difficult to imagine Labour…

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Should Labour move swiftly to depose Corbyn?

Should Labour move swiftly to depose Corbyn?

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If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well  It were done quickly. Trading as short as 1/6, let us assume that Jeremy Corbyn wins. Let us also assume that the electoral cause of Labour will be better served by getting rid of him. Elections are won on the centre ground, and Stephen Bush has pretty conclusively shown that non-voters are not, collectively, an alternative viable route to victory. Even if Corbyn does manage to turn out a bunch of new…

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Five more sleeps to go and Mr Corbyn’s chances of winning are rated at 81%

Five more sleeps to go and Mr Corbyn’s chances of winning are rated at 81%

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As at 7.30pm Implied probabilities of Corbyn winning according to Betfair is 81% Cooper 11% Burnham 9% Kendall < 1% pic.twitter.com/f3e4TGUCSe — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 Dear Labour if you elect Corbyn expect stories like this every day of his leadership. http://t.co/PohoGZg2F8 pic.twitter.com/fhYTWfoPKi — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 TSE Update ORB poll finds 2/3rds of people think Corbyn would be unlikely to win next general election http://t.co/UKTllXYvf1 pic.twitter.com/T94zaDKM7E — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 Part II of the…

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At least one contender is set to say the contest should be delayed by three days

At least one contender is set to say the contest should be delayed by three days

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If true. Blimey with knobs on. http://t.co/VWVLRCJf3C pic.twitter.com/tUKTjJMjCw — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 If this story by the Mail is true then whilst it will make the whole process look even more shambolic it might indicate one of the candidates thinks they can still win with late votes. So whomever is the first to call for a delay might be the one to back as I can’t see Corbyn calling for a delay. One of the problems I foresee…

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The bigger Corbyn’s victory the greater will be his survival chances

The bigger Corbyn’s victory the greater will be his survival chances

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Why a clear win on first preferences is crucial The final reweighted YouGov poll on the labour leadership had Corbyn with an amazing 57% of first preferences. That was nearly a month ago and the chances are that he will struggle to be quite at that level when the official results are announced next Saturday morning. The size of his margin of victory is going to be very important because he will be taking over with less goodwill from his…

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This might end the mini Cooper surge and the Burnham slump

This might end the mini Cooper surge and the Burnham slump

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Team Burnham really should shout this from the rooftops. http://t.co/ustVi1YX7x pic.twitter.com/VFkhg85yss — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 6, 2015 The Observer have reported The head of Liz Kendall’s campaign has suggested that Labour supporters will give the party’s leadership to Jeremy Corbyn if they vote for Yvette Cooper. In a dramatic intervention less than a week before the result, Toby Perkins said he believed the complexities of the alternative vote (AV) system, under which voters’ second preferences play a decisive role, left…

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