Just 16% tell ComRes that LAB-led JC likely to win GE compared with 65% saying TMay-led CON will
Round-up of findings from latest ComRes online poll for Indy/S Mirror
The chart from the highly accurate YouGov poll that shows how totally split LAB is
It was the newcomers into the party wot did it
Anticipating Corbyn’s second mandate
History repeats itself: the first time as farce, the second as – who knows? Albert Einstein said that time travel into the past is impossible. He was, however, only talking physically. Politics does not necessarily obey the same laws; a fact he recognised when he turned down the presidency of Israel due people needing to be treated differently from ‘objective matters’. Later today Labour will attempt to prove that those universal physical laws don’t apply by trying to turn the…
Corbyn has clearly won – the big question is the size of his victory
Corbyn now a 99% chance on Betfair pic.twitter.com/V8UZaUjMvI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2016 If its tighter than last year then it’ll encourage future challenges According to punters at least there is absolutely no doubt about who will be announced as winner of the LAB leadership contest on Saturday. The controversial incumbent looks set for victory and clearly his supporters will be hoping that his vote share is above or equal to the 59% of 2015. Clearly some of…
Just how strong is Momentum? Don Brind takes a sceptical look at the numbers
Perceptions about its size could be greater than the reality I’m only a few years younger than Neil Kinnock so when he tells John Pienaar on Panorama he fears that he may never see another Labour government in his lifetime it’s an “ouch” moment for me. I regularly go in to bat for Kinnock with fans of Tony Blair, especially when they trot out the line “he won three general elections”. My argument is that Blair benefited hugely from the…
The LAB selectorate polls don’t always get it right – remember this from June 2007
Both the Telegraph and Sky wrongly announced that Alan Johnson had won the deputy race Remember June 2007? So many Labour MPs had chickened out of doing other than nominate Brown for leader that there weren’t enough left for another candidate to go on the ballot. The result – the party got what the polling indicated was a leader who was an electoral liability – not someone who could lead them into a fourth successive general election victory. Instead there…
Whatever you think about Momentum it sure knows how to get media attention
Introducing 'Momentum Kids' To Provide Political Education For Children And Childcare For Parents https://t.co/LkmDILhsf4 via @HuffPostUKPol — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2016 Quite how serious this is we don’t know but it will sure set off a narrative Well done to Paul Waugh of Huff Post for another great political story – this time on a the plan to create Momentum Kids. Reading his article it almost appears like some massive trolling effort which will further focus attention on…
Analysis: Corbyn has the worst end first year satisfaction ratings of any LAB leader in opposition
Brown, who was of course PM, had the largest negative numbers This last week has marked the first anniversary of Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour party and I thought it worth checking the standing of other LAB leaders at this stage. As can been seen from the chart Gordon Brown was doing worse but of those who were in opposition Corbyn’s numbers are the worst. Interestingly the LAB leader with the best ratings was, of course, Tony Blair and he…