The Biblical parable of the mustard seed teaches us that even the tiniest beginnings can grow into something very large. An example from history of this is a man who didn’t want to buy new footwear. It led to his downfall and death, an inter-empire war, and played a significant role in the rapid early rise of Islam. Emperor Maurice of the Eastern Roman Empire had a surprisingly good relationship with his Sassanid counterpart Chosroes, having sheltered the young man…
“Levelling Up” should not be a meaningless catchphrase. If Levelling Up is to mean anything then surely it should mean that those currently without wealth can work hard, strive, take opportunities and earn money to provide for themselves and their family, and to in the words of the Prime Minister “keep more of their hard-earned money” as seen in the tweet above. Today’s tax rise on that “hard-earned money” via National Insurance is a slap in the face against the…
Donald Rumsfeld, who died in June, will always be remembered for his statement about ‘known unknowns’ with reference to Iraq. The term was apparently already in use at NASA for risks that one is aware of, which is where Rumsfeld came across it. So casting our minds to the approaching next General Election what might the ‘known unknowns’ be here in UK for the 2023/24 campaign? The NHS. Obviously a perennial election regular, but this time it could be absolutely…
Source: Wikipedia – data tables can be viewed here. Serving as Prime Minister for a long time does not guarantee that history will remember you kindly. But I suspect most who reach the summit of politics are keenly aware of their place in the longevity league table. The chart above shows the length of time served as Prime Minister for each of the 77 individual stints. They can be grouped into three broad categories: 1) The also-rans: 50 stints of…
Did the betting markets fail in Chesham & Amersham and Batley & Spen? Two big by-election shocks in the space of two weeks. Did the pundits and betting markets underestimate the eventual winners as the Conservatives failed to win both Chesham & Amersham and Batley & Spen? First, an explanation of what I mean by betting markets. The days of only ‘bookies’ deciding what the odds should be are long gone. The odds you’ll see on exchanges like Smarkets are the result…
There’s a lot of water to flow under the bridge before the next general election. The future of Scotland and potential boundary changes are just two issues that would change the dynamics. Nevertheless, this piece assesses the potential for opposition parties and their voters working together to deny the Conservatives a majority at the next election. The data behind the analysis can be found here. Tactical voting is an established part of our first past the post electoral system. For the most part it is done by those…
The modern era of political betting began in 1963 when Ladbrokes’ Ron Pollard opened up a book on the Conservative Party leadership contest. Shrewd punters could back the outsider Alec Douglas-Home at 16/1 over the hot 5/4 favourite Rab Butler….. In recent years we have seen political betting reach new heights, becoming an integral part of the political narrative itself. Figures as diverse as Jeremy Corbyn, Nigel Farage and Donald Trump have traded on their tag as “underdogs” to cause…
As We All Know Arlene Foster Has Resigned From Her DUP Leader & First Minister Duties. She Was Leader For Almost Six Years. There Were Ups And There Were Downs. In My Honest Opinion, She Simply Made Too Many Mistakes And The Pressure Has Been Building For A Number Of Months. With Arlene Leaving In May, Who Will Be The Next DUP Leader? Below Are The Runners & Profiles For Each Candidate: Name : Jeffrey Donaldson (Aged 58)Current Odds :…