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Category: Guest Contribution

Forget voting intention: What about the country’s “mood”?

Forget voting intention: What about the country’s “mood”?

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Research by Dr Jane Green and Dr Will Jennings, Manchester University A new measure by researchers at the University of Manchester shows a significant problem for Gordon Brown: the mood of the country is against Labour on policy competence. It is as serious for Gordon Brown as it was for the Conservatives before Labour’s landslide victory in 1997. The current decline against Labour is precipitous. Green and Jennings argue that it is important to study the public mood across a…

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Andy Cooke on the UNS – Part 3

Andy Cooke on the UNS – Part 3

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UNS – Exploring the Distortions I’ve put together a short series on UNS – what it is, what’s its track record, and what levels of distortion have occurred in recent elections. This is part three of three. It is an article of faith that the electoral system is inherently biased against the Conservative Party. Certainly a UNS calculation from the position as of the 2005 General Election is very harsh on the prospects of the Tories. But is this built…

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Andy Cooke on the UNS – Part 2

Andy Cooke on the UNS – Part 2

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Uniform National Swing – the track record I’ve put together a short series on UNS – what it is, what’s its track record, and what levels of distortion have occurred in recent elections. This is part two of three. When did UNS break? It can’t simply be one of those myths that it’s fairly accurate – it must have been a useful forecasting tool once. I’m going to show tables for the 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001 and 2005 General Elections,…

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Andy Cooke on the UNS – Part 1

Andy Cooke on the UNS – Part 1

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Uniform National Swing – an investigation I’ve put together a short series on UNS – what it is, what’s its track record, and what levels of distortion have occurred in recent elections. This is part one of three. My assumptions about the distortions to UNS that have accumulated and are likely (in my opinion) to rebound have been controversial to some. That’s fine – the point has always been to give you information to ponder – you make your own…

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Will Roger continue his winning Oscars run?

Will Roger continue his winning Oscars run?

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(Here is the 2010 version of what has become a great PB tradition – Roger’s Oscars Tips. Those who have followed them up with bets in previous years have almost always made money. Let’s see if this will work again next week – Mike Smithson) 2010 Oscars. Here is a list of the nominations in the main categories followed by my tips for the winners. A competitive year with very few certainties, Best Film. ‘A Serious Man’, ‘An Education’, ‘Avatar,…

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Is this the man to take over from Gord?

Is this the man to take over from Gord?

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Could he become Labour’s William Hague? One of the problems of Mr. Brown’s style of government is that he makes most of the big announcements and his top team get very little public exposure. So if there’s something big to say about health then it’s not the Secretary of State responsible who gets the lime-light. Not only does this mean that outside three or four figures there’s relatively little public awareness of the second string of party figures – but…

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Against The Grain – A Labour Recovery?

Against The Grain – A Labour Recovery?

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A Guest slot by Jack W (PBers in their quiet, contemplative moments will no doubt worry how a PB Titan spends his reflective moments after having polished his betting halo, plotting the next Jacobite Rising and single handedly erasing the balance of payments deficit by stint of fine pie exports alone. You need concern yourself no more. For having been prevailed upon to lift the literary status of PB to Nobel literary standards it is clear that my every spare…

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