Should they be opening the bubbly at Cameron Towers? After an exciting few hours it now appears that the plot was restricted to the two former cabinet ministers and if any follow-up had been planned it seems to have gone plop. The outcome is that Labour will be going into the election with a leader who has the second lowest approval ratings in the party’s history. Only Michael Foot rated lower. Quite why the bulk of Labour MPs are reluctant…
Ipsos-MORI How good a pointer are these numbers? A lot is talked about polling comparisons between now and the run-up to the May 1997 general election when, of course, Mr. Blair won a landslide victory. It can be challenging finding comparable data because of the considerable changes in polling over the past thirteen years. The table above, however, is one where we can make a direct comparison because it’s based on MORI questions which have been asked in the same…
Could my December 2008 speculation come about? Back in December 2008 I put forward what I described as a “plan for Clegg” in the event that the Tories ended up with many more votes at the general election but behind Labour on seats. Such an outcome is highly possible if the gap between the parties gets down to five or six percent. On the one hand Clegg would find it hard with his own MPs and activists to deal with…
Telegraph Will it be PMMP after the election? Several papers, the Telegraph amongst them, carry reports of Mandy’s magazine interview in which he hints of his desire to return to the Commons as an MP. PaddyPower and Ladbrokes both make him fifth favourite to succeed Brown at 9/1 and 8/1 respectively. Yet for that to happen he needs to ditch his life peerage and that requires a current law change move to get through parliament quickly enough so he can…
Is the 14/1 that it’ll be June a value bet? So far most people seem to have dismissed the prospect of Brown hanging on until a June election (the last possible date) – mainly on the grounds that he would not want the big one to take place after Labour’s expected pasting in the May 6th locals. But how valid a reason is this? And doesn’t everything we know about him suggest that he’s going to find this such an…
guardian.co.uk Could Labour’s paymasters wield the knife? This is the conclusion of Polly Toynbee’s first Guardian column of 2010. “…Until now the unions have been Brown’s praetorians, whipped in by Charlie Whelan. But it’s time union leaders asked themselves if it’s in their members’ interests to see Labour crash out under Brown. The cabinet is frozen by individual self-interest – shame on all of them. They want Brown gone, but none dares wield the knife without the others. Future contenders…
Why I’m still not betting on the general election outcome? Another morning and the speculation over Brown’s leadership continues in the papers. So how will those “leading cabinet ministers” who are said to want Brown out view this polling data? For after yesterday morning’s examination of the long-term leader approval rating trends today I’m looking further at the Ipsos-MORI leader approval data but from another angle – what those who told the pollster they are voting Labour think of Mr….
Ipsos-MORI Is survival from this position nigh on impossible? One of my best Christmas presents was a personal copy of the invaluable reference source – David Butler’s Twentieth-century British Political Facts, 1900-2000. This contains polling data going back every month to February 1945 – and until now I’ve had to go to the library to look this up. As well as the outcomes of voting intention question the book also lists the PM and opposition leaders’ approval ratings which have…