politicalbetting.com

CON 40% (40) LAB 24% (24) LD 19% (20) The least volatile pollster retains it reputation There’s a new Angus Reid poll exclusively for Politicalbetting this afternoon and once again it shows almost no change on the previous poll taken at the start of January. Fieldwork took place from Tuesday until Wednesday evening and we’ll have links to the full data later on in the day. This is the third successive poll in the Angus Reid/PB series where the CON-LAB…

Read More Read More

How did the “Lie Detector” become a “Credibility Meter”? The first screen grab from Daily Telegraph’s video coverage was taken at about 10.30am. Notice how the meter on the left hand side was described as a “Lie Detector”. The one below was done at 11.45am – and notice how this has now been renamed “Credibility Meter”. Has someone been batting very hard for Tony during the morning and if so who? There lies a story. Mike Smithson

What’s going on at Number 10? There’s been lots of activity in the past hour following tweets about cabinet ministers arriving in Downing Street. The rumour mill is working ferociously and the idea that Brown might be about to call an election on the back of tomorrow’s “End of Recession” announcement is being floated. Can we taken it seriously? Who knows? It would certainly deal with Brown’s Chilcott problem. The last February general election was in 1974 when Heath’s Tory…

Read More Read More

Has Peter Oborne got it right on the Iraq inquiry? There’s an excellent piece by Peter Oborne in the Mail today about how Brown’s Iraq inquiry strategy is falling apart. Describing the original plan as “masterful” Oborne” writes:“.. On the one hand he gained the credit for ordering Sir John Chilcot’s inquiry into the invasion, thus honouring one of the promises he made during his Labour leadership campaign in 2007. On the other hand he had cleverly arranged that he…

Read More Read More

Will this mark the start of a change of government? The polls will close. Then all the TV and radio news channels will announce the first details of the exit poll that MORI have been carrying out throughout the day and which will have been processed and analysed by Professors Curice, Thrasher and Rallings. Over the next few hours results from about half the constituencies – the rest will be counted on the Friday. At what stage will the picture…

Read More Read More

Amazon.co.uk Widgets This is being launched in London tonight and is well worth the £10.68 that Amazon will charge you for the paper-back. The lead editor was Greg Callus, known to PBers as MORUS, and I wrote one of the chapters. The team have done a great job in producing something that will be looked at time and time again in the coming months. Well done Greg- you deserve to feel very proud. Mike Smithson

PoliticsHome Is this the product of being in power for 13 years? I don’t quite know what to make of this poll from PoliticsHome – the politics website and quasi polling organisation that has yet to join the British Polling Council. Inevitably when you’ve been at the helm for a fairly long time then there will have been a whole lot of disappointments on the policy front. But I just wonder what these numbers say about the motivation of party…

Read More Read More

Amber Valley – 6.3% Barrow and Furness – 6.6% Basildon South & East Thurrock – 5.6% Batley and Spen – 6.7% Bedford – 4% Blackpool North and Cleveleys – 4.2% Bolton North East – 6% Bolton West – 5.9% Brigg and Goole – 3.9% Brighton Kemptown – 2.4% Brighton Pavilion – 6.6% Broxtowe – 2.2% Burton – 2.4% Bury North – 2.5% Calder Valley – 1.4% Carlisle – 6.7% Chatham and Aylesford – 4.1% Chester – 1.1% Cleethorpes – 3% Colne Valley – 1.3% Copeland – 6.6% Corby – 1.6% Crawley – 0.05% Derbyshire South – 2.7% Dewsbury – 4.4% Dorset South – 1.8% Dover –…

Read More Read More