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How do hung parliament advocates deal with this?

How do hung parliament advocates deal with this?

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Times online What do these say about hung parliaments and the LDs? Reproduced above are a couple of findings from today’s Sunday Times YouGov poll which I think might have signficance. The first is a form of forced choice question where the responses are Lib Dem supporters are the most interesting. Just comparing their answers then support for Labour is just ahead of the Tories – even though more of the would prefer a Tory outright win than a Labour…

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Andy Cooke on the UNS – Part 2

Andy Cooke on the UNS – Part 2

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Uniform National Swing – the track record I’ve put together a short series on UNS – what it is, what’s its track record, and what levels of distortion have occurred in recent elections. This is part two of three. When did UNS break? It can’t simply be one of those myths that it’s fairly accurate – it must have been a useful forecasting tool once. I’m going to show tables for the 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001 and 2005 General Elections,…

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YouGov seeks to placate its weightings critics

YouGov seeks to placate its weightings critics

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What do we think of the Anthony Wells explanation? YouGov staffer and operator of UKPollingReport, Anthony Wells, has put up a long post seeking to answer some of the points about the firm’s weightings that have appeared here in recent days. The essence of his article is that there have been adjustments to deal with the new way it is doing the daily poll which do not involve members of its panel being asked to take part in a specific…

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No change in the daily poll Tory lead

No change in the daily poll Tory lead

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CON 38% (38) LAB 32% (32) LD 17%(19) So what IS going to move the numbers? The incredibly consistent daily poll continues to remain very stable – unmoved by bullygate and now by Michael Ashcroft – that you begin to wonder what could change the numbers. The Tories would feel much more comfortable if they were back in the 40s while the Labour recovery appears to have run out of steam a bit. With the Lib Dems down two then…

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Another poll has the Tories doing better in the marginals

Another poll has the Tories doing better in the marginals

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UPDATED But the swing is only two points better A YouGov poll for Channel 4 in 60 key seats by YouGov has the gap between the parties down to just two points – but given what happened in the seats in 2005 this represents a 6.5% swing. This compares with a swing of 4.5% in recent national YouGov polls. As Anthony Wells points out at UKPR the differential is consistent with previous YouGov marginals polls. Here is the link. I’m…

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Welcome Peter Kellner

Welcome Peter Kellner

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YouGov Lots of questions about weightings Peter, Thank you very much for being the third pollster to take part in an online discussion on PB. You follow Bob Worcester and your former YouGov colleague who is now at Angus Reid, Andy Morris. Q.There’ve been quite a few issues raised on the previous threads about your party ID weightings and the apparent difficulty you seem to have getting enough in the Labour category to take part. The result is, as can…

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