My broad impression so far is that Labour has been smart to have the launch in front of an appreciative, presumably hand-picked, audience. Brown is a confidence politician and the more the crowd is behind him the better he comes over. That’s working out well – the only danger of this is if the media start commenting on it and this becomes the story. Let’s see how all this gets reported. As to the details – who cares? Elections are…
YG daily poll – The Sun Apr 11 Apr 10 CONSERVATIVES 37% 40% LABOUR 31% 32% LIB DEMS 20% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4.5% 5.5% Following the launch of the official campaign we are now getting the YouGov daily poll every day and tonight sees the first one where the fieldwork started on a Saturday evening and finished this evening. This is a sampling period that we have no past experience of and it will be interesting…
Pollster Firm Prediction Andrew Hawkins ComRes Con majority 32 Ben Page Ipsos-MORI Con 25 seats short Andrew Cooper Populus Con majority of 10+ Peter Kellner YouGov Con majority 20-30 Robert Salvoni Harris Con majority 2-10 Andy Morris Angus Reid Con majority 40-50 Martin Boon ICM Con majority 20 John Heald Opinion Research Con majority 40+ Seven out of eight predict a Tory majority Thanks to the Independent on Sunday for this one – a survey of what the pollsters themselves…
ICM Marginals poll-NOTW 2005 Apr 9 Jan 22 CONSERVATIVES 30.8% 36% 40% LABOUR 44.4% 37% 37% LIB DEMS 17.8% 19% 14% LAB to CON swing from 2005 . 6.3% 8.3% As well as the main national ICM poll there’s a new marginals survey by the firm in the News of the World based on the same seats as the paper’s January marginals poll. With all marginal polls the critical factor is the swing from what happened in those seats at…
ICM – S. Telegraph Apr 9 Apr 4 CONSERVATIVES 38% 37% LABOUR 30% 33% LIB DEMS 21% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 3.5% ComRes: S. Mirror/IoS Apr 9 Mar 30 CONSERVATIVES 39% 37% LABOUR 32% 30% LIB DEMS 16% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 5% There’s quite a lot of poll news tonight and this post will be updated – but the most significant is the latest from ICM for the Sunday Telegraph. This…
Is the Lib Dem recovery eating into Labour’s vote? When Lord Adonis made his appeal[1] for Lib Dems to back Labour at the general election, he was basing that call on what he saw as “the fundamental Labour-Lib Dem identity of interestâ€. It sounds a positive message and he quotes various instances when Labour and the Lib Dems have worked together both recently and throughout their histories. There could well have been a defensive as well as a tactical reason…
YG daily poll: The Sun Apr 9 Apr 8 CONSERVATIVES 40% 40% LABOUR 30% 31% LIB DEMS 20% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 6% So tonight’s YouGov daily poll reinforces the trend that we have seen from other polls this week. A move away from Labour with the Tories either progressing a bit or holding firm Given differential swings in the marginals this puts the blue team into overall majority territory and will add to the jitters…