Bestbetting And tonight’s YouGov poll YouGov – the Sun May 3 May 2 CONSERVATIVES 35% 34% LIB DEMS 28% 29% LABOUR 28% 28% The chart shows the changes over the past 24 hours on the overall majority markets at the betting exchanges. Just look at how it has chopped and changed as gamblers have reacted to different bits of polling news – some pointing in one direction and some in another. No doubt it will get worse tonight with ComRes…
Opinium – D. Express May 3 Apr 26 CONSERVATIVES 33% 34% LIB DEMS 27% 28% LABOUR 28% 25% Are we seeing a last minute recovery? There’s a new poll out from Opinium which sees a three point jump in the Labour share and follows a period which saw the final debate and, of course, “Bigotgateâ€. Although the firm is new this will give real heart to the red team as they try to fend off what seemed like a certain…
The final Reuters/Ipsos MORI marginals poll, is just out and points to a 7% LAB-CON swing which would just be enough to secure an overall majority. That could be just enough to put them into power without the need for support from other parties. More can be found here. Mike Smithson
(Timings are based on 2005) 22:00 The 2010 BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is published. This will be the first indication of how the country has voted. Throughout the day at 130 selected polling stations NOP and MORI will have been conducted interviews with one in every ten voters as they leave. The vast majority of the locations will have been used in 2005 and a team of academic psephologists will analyse what’s coming in focusing on moves from the previous election….
OnePoll – The People May 1 Apr 24 CONSERVATIVES 30% 32% LIB DEMS 32% 32% LABOUR 21% 23% Which’ll be closest: phone polling or on-line? Above is the latest from new pollster, OnePoll, for today’s People – the paper that used to commission YouGov until the exclusive deal by that firm with News International in February. We don’t know much about OnePoll but this is their fourth campaign survey for the paper which I think ought to be recorded. Like…
Could the numbers turn again? It’s been quite an afternoon on the betting markets as punters digested the poll news what was coming in and then piled into a Tory overall majority. So NOM – the favourite of only a few hours ago – is back to odds against and a Tory majority is odds on. The chart, from Bestbetting, shows how the exchanges reacted with the odds expressed as percentages. UPDATE BPIX – Mail on Sunday BPIX – Mail…
YouGov – Sunday Times YouGov – Sunday Times May 1 Apr 30 CONSERVATIVES 35% 34% LIB DEMS 28% 28% LABOUR 27% 28% ComRes – Sunday Mirror/Indy on Sunday ComRes S. Mirror/IoS May 1 Apr 28 CONSERVATIVES 38% 36% LIB DEMS 25% 26% LABOUR 28% 29% ICM Sunday Telegraph ICM – Sunday Telegraph Apr 30 Apr 25 CONSERVATIVES 36% 33% LIB DEMS 27% 30% LABOUR 29% 28% Angus Reid – Sunday Express Angus Reid – Sunday Express May 1 Apr 26…