politicalbetting.com

“…The Observer has discovered widespead evidence of a Faustian pact between political parties, with candidates on all sides using ingenious ruses to keep declared expenses below the limit. Some candidates claimed to have begun their campaigns half way through April, although Prime Minister John Major had fired the starting pistol on 17 March. Large amounts of money were spent on techniques such as telephone canvassing, sending free videos to first-time voters and touring on campaign buses. But this appeared on…

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Can Labour gain outright control in Cardiff in May? Of all the UK’s various assemblies and parliaments, the Welsh one has probably made least impact on the London-based media and consequently, on the wider national consciousness. As an example, ask yourself if you can remember who the First Minister is, now that Rhodri Morgan has retired from the job. As with Scotland and Northern Ireland, Wales will go to the polls next Spring and there’s a strong likelihood that it…

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Who will be the next to leave the cabinet? Betting on cabinet casualties is punting for the brave, the stupid or someone with inside information. So if you are a Cabinet Minister’s secret lover, you can probably skip this post. Brave and stupid punters – read on. Paddy Power is the only conventional bookmaker with prices at the moment. As you can see, not all ministers are quoted, note that market does not apply to a ministerial reshuffle or a…

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Has Channel 4 opened a hornet’s nest? The problem with the Channel 4 investigation into Zac Goldsmith’s election expenses is that it is an open secret amongst political practitioners that such practices are widespread and touch all the main parties where there are tight races. Nobody would ever admit it but there is what amounts to an unofficial truce amongst the main parties not to probe too deeply into how opponents accounted for specific campaigns. The reason is that they’ve…

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The polls of the past three weeks Poll Date CON LAB LD YouGov/Sun 13/07/10 43 34 15 YouGov/Sun 12/07/10 42 35 15 YouGov/Sun 11/07/10 42 35 15 YouGov/Sunday Times 10/07/10 42 34 17 YouGov/Sun 09/07/10 42 35 16 YouGov/Sun 08/07/10 41 36 17 YouGov/Sun 07/07/10 40 36 17 YouGov/Sun 06/07/10 41 36 15 YouGov/Sun 05/07/10 40 36 16 YouGov/Sunday Times 02/07/10 41 36 16 YouGov/Sun 01/07/10 42 35 16 YouGov/Sun 30/06/10 42 36 15 YouGov/Sun 29/06/10 42 36 15 YouGov/Sun…

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Ed Miliband’s Campaign in Good Socialist Health As the Labour leadership rumbles on the contest appears to have taken a settled shape. The next phase is the big union nominations however it’s possible to make a judgement on how two thirds of Labour’s Electoral College will now vote. As most PB readers know the college is split into thirds between Labour Members of Parliament, Labour Party members and those in affiliated societies who pay a political levy. The latter include…

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