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Would Cameron have won an overall majority? There’ve been lots of counter-factuals around today following this snippet from the Indy’s Andrew Grice:- “Last Thursday was ringed in my diary with the words “general election?” I pencilled it in when the May election resulted in a hung parliament and there seemed every chance that a minority Conservative government would soldier on until David Cameron asked for a proper mandate and a second election…” The main argument against there being an overall…

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David Cameron David Cameron “doing well/badly (YouGov) All % CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 54 98 14 76 Badly 39 2 80 19 Don’t know 7 0 5 4 Ed Miliband Ed Miliband “doing well/badly (YouGov) All % CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 34 20 67 33 Badly 32 45 12 37 Don’t know 34 35 21 19 Nick Clegg Nick Clegg “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All % CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 38 72…

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Did the opposition over-egg the imminence of the cuts? Now that this week’s spending review has been and gone, some people might be surprised to find that not only does the world continues to turn but pretty much everything else carries on as before, for now. Certainly, there will be restrictions on spending and some functions of government will find their budgets under a lot of strain – but not yet. Likewise, there are tax rises in the pipeline (literally…

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YouGov 23/10/10 All 18-24 25-39 40-59 60 plus CON 41 35 38 39 47 LAB 40 44 43 41 36 LD 10 12 11 10 8 And the older you the more you are likely to vote Just look at the age splits from the latest YouGov poll. Labour is leading in every segment up to the age of 59. Then the 60 plus groups come in and there’s a massive margin for the Tories. Funny that – we oldies…

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The last time the LDs were on this level was in September 1997 when ICM had C24: LAB 60: LD 10. I think that that was Tony Blair’s peak and came at the time of the Princess Di car crash. Mike Smithson

Do the winners always write the history? One of the dangers for Labour, magnified during the coverage over the past couple of days, is that the coalition are placing much of the blame for what’s happened on the last government. All the painful measures that ministers are announcing are predicated with the argument that this is all required because they are having to “clear up the mess that was bequeathed to them”. The message that the coalition is trying to…

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But voters split over whether the plans are right Ipsos-MORI has got the first post-CSR poll out and finds both good and bad news for the coalition. While overall there is acceptance that cuts are needed the public is evenly split on whether the government has made the right decisions. A total of 41% think it has made the right decisions and 38% the wrong decisions. Those who voted Conservative at the general election are most likely to think the…

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The first reaction to the cuts statements There was a little bit of polling last night about the spending review but most of the fieldwork for the YouGov daily poll took place before the CSR statement was made. An interesting angle comes from the firm’s Anthony Wells – who runs UKPR. He wrote:- “The most interesting question there though was who people thought was to blame. 30% said the coalition and 34% said the last Labour government. Compare that to…

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