YouGov has UKIP at 6%
Today’s YouGov poll has CON 34%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LD 21%(-2), Oth 11%(nc). UKIP is at 6% compared with 4% with MORI and 1% with ICM. They cannot all be right but a sixfold difference must be a record. .
Continuing the thread [next site update September 8]
MORI’s new poll has: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LD 21%. Labour are up 4%. the Tories are up 1%, as UKIP fall one point to 4. At this stage before the last election MORI was showing a 22% Labour lead with the LDs on 15%. Labour were on 51%. YouGov should be out tomorrow and UKIP’s rating will be interesting.! After 94 comments can the thread be continued here? Many thanks. Mike Smithson
The Political Betting People Markets
Will Tony, Peter and Michael hang on to their jobs? While the focus has been on by-elections and their implications for the General Election there continues to be lots of activity on the people markets – particularly on those involving Tony Blair. Given the confident way he dealt with the Butler report and the by-election aftermath we think that the odds on Blair to be Prime Minister Before End of Next General Election at 8/15 are pretty generous. We can’t…
The Lib Dem surge is BAD for Labour
scotlibdems After our Lib Dem BUY CALL – now SELL LABOUR Five weeks ago we advised that backing Charles Kennedy’s Lib Dems for 58 seats or more on the spread markets was a good value bet. Those who took the advice could now get out at a profit of four times their unit stake. But don’t – even with the buy price rising last night to 66 we believe that this is still value for money. Now another big opportunity…
What would have happened if June 10th had been the General Election?
How Labour’s 22.6% Euro votes would have produced 300 Westminster seats For several months we’ve been warning political gamblers about the risks of backing the Conservatives for the General Election because the way that Westminster seats are distributed means that the system is skewed towards Labour. With the rise of non-traditional parties such as UKIP this bias has become even more acute. It’s now possible for Labour to be 9% behind on votes and end up with more MPs. Nothing…
Postal votes give Labour 5% boost
On Saturday we wondered whether the all-postal voting experiment had been an own goal for Labour. Certainly it attracted a lot of bad publicity and this might have had an impact on the overall result. But it is clear that Labour’s performance in the Euro Elections would have been substantially worse if it had not been for the experiment. Looking at the relative performance of Labour in the nine English regions that were declared last night the party’s shares dropped…
Was the postal voting experiment a Labour own goal?
NOTE: Post updated 0815 Sunday In an astute comment last weekend the Independent on Sunday political columnist, Alan Watkins, had this to say about postal voting:- What is surprising is that the venture was embarked on at all. For the wisdom of the wise in Labour circles was always that postal voting benefited the Conservatives and the Liberals, as they were then named. That was because they were not only more conscientious naturally but more accustomed to dealing with envelopes…
London Olympic Price Warning
Olympic City – 2012. Now it’s down to five leading cities a healthy betting market has developed. But before you bet on the Ken Livingstone-supported London bid check out other international markets. For there is much less enthusiasm about the bid outside the UK as there is in London itself. For if punters wanting to back London the last place they should put their bets is with a UK bookmaker. The best price here is 3/1 where London is second…