Tony Blair – – June 8 2001 – – happier times One of the great dangers for General Election punters is to look at the forthcoming contest through the eyes of the last one. The big division that we see on this site is between those who think that Labour will continue to enjoy the massive advantage of getting many more seats in relation to votes casts compared with the other parties and those who don’t. But the election of…
Today’s Populus Poll would probably carry a lot more weight if it was not so out of line with what the same pollster found just eight days ago. Within that short period:- Labour has jumped 7% from third to first place; the Tories are down 4% from first to second place ; and the Lib Dems are down from second to third place and are also down 4% The figures are CON 28%(-4), LAB 35%(+7), LD 25%(-4) For a good…
How will punters react to Blair’s health, Hartlepool and the debate? With the Hartlepoool by-election, Tony Blair’s health news and the first Kerry-Bush TV debate it’s likely that we’ll see a lot of activity on betting markets right across the board. Labour Leader at General Election A considerable amount of movement here and we expect the Blair price to move out in spite of the statement of his plans for the future. The by-election victory would make it easier for…
Tory tactical voters hold the key The more we think about this the more we believe that it will be the Tories who’ll decide how this by election will go. The thinking that they will follow their allegiance is based on the July 15 contests when they kept within 2-3% of their General Election peformance. But two things are different: the Conservatives have put a lot less into the Hartlepool campaign and Labour’s campaign strategy to make the LD candidate…
There’s been a big move back to Labour in the Hartlepool markets with William Hill coming back in at a price of 1/6. The Lib Dems are at 7/2. The Betfair betting exchange has responded in the same fashion although the current Labour price is slightly better value at about 1/4. It’s a fairly light market with just £1,600 being matched between 9am and 6pm. It could be that just one or two punters are forcing the price down and…
Populus – Labour in third place nationally A series of bad national opinion surveys for Labour in the Sunday papers have transformed the betting for Thursday’s by-election in Hartlepool to elect a replacement for Peter Mandelson who has quit Westminster to become a Euro Commissioner. Yesterday morning we were suggesting that the 4/1 then available on the Lib Dems on the betting exchanges was “tempting”. As of the time of posting that price has tightened to 8/5. So yesterday a…
Labour nervousness – not much Lib Dem confidence There’s currently almost no support for Labour at the heavy odds-on prices on the Betfair exchange and prices are easing. At the same time there’s been a slight hardening in the Lib Dem price. The LDs are now at about 100/30 down from between 9/2 and 4/1. Labour has moved out from 1/5 to about 1/4. What’s very telling is that currently there’s nobody offering to bet on Labour at anything less…
Yet another new Lib Dem market from William Hill. Somebody there is having a busy week! They are now offering the same odds on Charles Kennedy ever becoming Prime Minister as they are for the Queen to abdicate – 33/1. We do not generally like open-ended markets like this because the bookmakers gets hold of your money and can sit on it for a very long time. However 33/1 seems good value. If the Lib Dems do well at the…