How the Indy described a 6% drop as “standing still” The December poll by Communicate Research for the Independent on Sunday showed a huge change since November when the pollster was reporting that Labour was back to its 2001 General Election level of 42%. The figures are:- LAB 39 (-3): CON 34 (+3) LD 19 (-1) But the most remarkable feature of the poll was how it has been covered by John Rentoul in the paper. His story appears under…
What will be the impact of “others”? The macro polling trend of 2004 has been the emergence of “others” as a serious electoral force that looks set to have a big impact on the General Election outcome. This is how the main pollsters are showing others in their latest surveys compared with those in January 2004. YouGov – Main three parties 88% (-6%) Others 12% (+6%) Populus – Main three parties 90% (-3%) Others 10% (+3%) ICM – Main three…
The main two parties remain unchanged in the Decvember YouGov poll which is out today a week earlier than usual. The only move is a small reduction for the Lib Dems. The figures are CON 32(nc), LAB 35 (nc), LD 21 (-2) OTH 12 (+2). The full details of the poll are not yet available but it will be interesting to find out how UKIP is doing because YouGov traditionally have them at a higher figure. Throughout 2004 the Labour…
Thanks for all your patience. We have been having serious server problems this week and a completely new server will be installed at the weekend. The original technical set-up was not designed for a site that is as active as Politicalbetting has become. Mike Smithson
Now firm second favourite on both sides of the Atlantic The huge publicity build-up for London’s 2012 Olympic bid seems to have caught the imagination of punters in the UK and internationally. The best bookmaker price in the UK is now 7/2 with just over 5/1 available on Betfair. Interestingly there been a sharp move to London on the Tradesports exchange which is focused on the US market. For a long time New York was in the second spot behind…
Will defiance of the Electoral Commission get through the House of Lords? The main story in the Times this morning says that the Government “defied its own independent advisers yesterday by declaring that all-postal ballots could go ahead despite fears of widespread fraud and intimidation.” The Electoral Commission had recommended that all-postal ballots be abandoned after it had studied the experiment on June 10 when such ballots took place over large parts on England for the local and Euro election….
The November Mori poll has just been published and shows big changes on the vote shares of October. They are:- CON 31 (+2), LAB 35 (-4), LDEM 23 (+1). The October figures came after a very bad month for Michael Howard and other pollsters had picked up a move to Labour. Before jumping to too many conclusions it should be noted that the survey took place between the 4th November and 8th November – more than a month ago –…
Due to overseas work commitments this week my access to the internet will restricted so there will only be a limited number of site updates. The big polling development of the week should be the December Populus Survey in the Times on Tuesday. Last month’s 34% Labour share was the lowest of any organisation and figures in our formula for making projections for the General Election. If that rises in line with the the latest NOP, ICM and CR polls…