A headache for Charles Kennedy or not? A new study by Mori – which has just been made available on their website – projects a House of Commons of LAB 376: CON 208: LD 39 – a majority for Tony Blair well in excess of 100. MORI aggregated all the data from their surveys in the second half of 2004 – a total sample 21,000 – and produced the following vote split LAB 35: CON 31: LD 24. So Labour…
Can we discuss the idea here Our interesting thread on serious issues relating to opinion polling has got somewhat hi-jacked by a discussion on a possible Politicalbetting party. The idea is to create a get-together where we could meet one another and put faces to names. What do site users think of the idea? When should it be – post or pre General Election? Where should it be? One idea was at the House of Commons where we would need…
As we get nearer the General Election there will be more active moderation in order to ensure that the site remains a place where people from all parties can feel comfortable discussing the effect of issues in relation to political outcomes on which betting takes place. We should try not to get into debates on the issues themselves, particularly if they are controversial, and we should avoid being offensive to others who make comments We have slightly changed the posting…
Choose from Blair,Brown, Howard or Kennedy I’m on the YouGov panel and I’ve just been polled – I guess for one of the Sunday papers. One interesting question was – if your car broke down who would you like to help you – Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Michael Howard or Charles Kennedy? Maybe it’s me but I could not imagine any of the four being able to offer any practical help. Michael Howard would not want to get his hands…
Apologies to all for the server problems again today – made worse because my son Robert is skiing in France and I am less able to fix it. We appear to have a peak of demand in the late mornings on weekdays which our systems seem to have problems coping with. I hope everybody got lots of work done this afternoon and productivity increased across the nation. Mike Smithson
Could they really have planned it like this? An interesting theory is put forward by James Blitz in the Financial Times today suggesting that the the Brown-Blair row might be part of a “cunning plot”. He notes First, it helped to get the prime minister over a very bad start to election year. The idea that Mr Blair had misjudged the public mood over the Asian tsunami – staying too long on holiday – had begun to crystallise in the…
The online political bookshop, Politicos, has agreed to put up the prize for our General Election Prediction Competition. What are described as £150 worth of “political anoraky things” will be presented to the entrant who gets most points in the competition, which closed on Saturday. Just under 100 site users have submitted entries and the marking will take place when the full results are known. The competition has attracted media coverage and there was a good reference in the Atticus…
The Atticus column is the Sunday Times today covers our General Election competition. It notes: Gamblers are predicting a Labour majority of 63 at the next election. Voters’ views have been collected by PoliticalBetting.Com, a political website, whose founder Mike Smithson says: “The top prediction so far is 130. The worst predicted result for Labour is being 22 MPs short of an overall majority.†There’s bad news, too, for Tory Theresa May: most gamblers say she’ll lose her Maidenhead seat….