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Communicate Research puts Labour lead at 12%

Communicate Research puts Labour lead at 12%

UPDATED Sunday 8am Is Tony Blair really heading for a 174 seat majority? Today’s Independent on Sunday survey, conducted by Communicate Research, puts Labour at a level that is higher than it achieved in the 2001 landslide and gives the party a lead of 12% over the Conservatives that would on the Martin Baxter calculation produce a majority of 174. With just five weeks to go before a May 5 election these are sensational figures but somewhat surprisingly the IoS…

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Politicalbetting’s busiest day

Politicalbetting’s busiest day

With the possible exception of the night of the US Presidential Election in November when we were recording usage in a different way this has been the site’s busiest day ever. We are tops for unique users, page views and overall hits. Thank you Howard Flight, thanks to all those who have made contributions and thank you to everybody for who has visited us. I am especially grateful to all those making comments who have kept within the ethos of…

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Guardian Political Blog of the Year

Guardian Political Blog of the Year

Politicalbetting makes the final five – please give the site your support Politicalbetting has been short-listed in Guardian Political Blog of the Year political commentry section. Many thanks to all those who have submitted nominations to the newspaper To cast your vote click through to here. Many thanks for all your support. Mike Smithson

Blair set to name the date

Blair set to name the date

Only a few days to go to the “off” It looks as though the phoney war is nearly over. According to the BBC’s Political Editor, Andrew Marr, Tony Blair is likely to name 5 May as election day when Parliament returns from its Easter break. Andrew Marr says Mr Blair will ask the Queen on 4 or 5 April to dissolve Parliament at the end of that week. Although everybody is saying that May 5th is a certainty – and…

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YouGov shows Lib Dems on 23% (UPDATED)

YouGov shows Lib Dems on 23% (UPDATED)

Is a rising Lib Dem figure bad news for Labour? A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times tomorrow shows only small changes on the pollster’s last survey in the Telegraph poll at the end of last month. The shares are CON 32 (nc): LAB 37(-1):LD 23(+2). So good news for the LDs and disappointing figures for the Tories from the pollster that always used to give them the best ratings. We’ve been arguing here for months that the dynamic that…

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Would you risk £1,000 a seat selling Labour?

Would you risk £1,000 a seat selling Labour?

How will the betting markets look after the budget Just seven weeks to go to a May 5th election and the contest has started to attract the attention of serious punters. One high roller on Monday “sold” Labour at £1,000 a seat at 350 seats – IG Index’s biggest General Election bet so far. If Tony Blair’s party does as well as last time then this punter could lose (400-350) * £1000 = £50,000. On the other hand if Labour…

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Labour up 4% in one Scottish poll – but down 10% in another

Labour up 4% in one Scottish poll – but down 10% in another

A very confused picture of what is happening north of the border has emerged from two almost totally contradictory opinion polls. One survey by System 3 in the Sunday Herald has the following with changes from the last survey in February LAB 46(+4): SNP 23(+1): CON 16%(+1): LD 13%(-2). But another survey by Scottish Opinion in the Sunday Mail has the following: LAB 38(-10): SNP 16 (-4), LD 23 (+12), CON 15 (-3). So every party that is going up…

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Our best General Election Bets

Our best General Election Bets

Although the main issue of which party will win most seats is almost a foregone conclusion there are a number of bets about where the chances of it happening are better, in our view, than the odds being quoted by the bookies. Lib Dems to get more than 70 seats. Charles Kennedy’s party poll rating is a third to half better than it was at this time before the last election and all the experience is that they will pick…

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