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POLITICALBETTING “BALANCE OF MONEY” prediction: Labour majority 52 (+1) Today’s YouGov poll was the first from any pollster for a fortnight showing an improvement in Labour fortunes – albeit by just one point – and this has taken some of the steam away from the move to the Tories on the spread betting Commons seats markets that have characterised the opening week of the campaign. The price moves on the spread-betting markets are just enough to produce the change in…

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Politicalbetting “Balance of Money” prediction: Labour majority 52 (-2) Sentiment on the betting markets, reinforced by this morning’s YouGov poll, continues to move away from Labour and there’s a change in our “Balance of Money” election prediction. From the average mid-point Labour price from the two spread markets that we feature we are projecting a General Election result based entirely on how political gamblers are risking their money. Yesterday it was at 54 seats – today’s calculation is for a…

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Could Labour suffer after the judge’s stinging attack on minsters? The judge in the postal vote-rigging trial has strongly attacked the government’s attitude to the problem accusing minsters of being not only complacent, but “in denial” about the failings of the system. According to BBC Online Richard Mawrey QC was speaking as he ruled there had been “widespread fraud” in six Birmingham council seats won last year by Labour and his comments come as more voters than ever are preparing…

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Will punters be more accurate than the pundits or the pollsters? Each day here during the campaign Politicalbetting will take the average mid-point Labour price from the two spread markets that we feature and project a General Election result based entirely on how political gamblers are risking their money. It will be interesting to see whether the balance of money being risked is a more accurate predictor of the result than the opinion polls or other forecasting methodolgies. For while…

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A daily feature: Throughout the the election we will be producing a daily Campaign Countdown here with the key numbers from the latest reported polls, our polling averages, Commons seat spread betting figures, and main betting odds from the conventional betting markets. We are hoping to have live betting price feeds as we get closer to the day. New Opinion Polls Reported: One new opinion poll this morning – from Communicate Research in the Independent on Sunday where the surveying…

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