Campaign Countdown – April 3rd

Campaign Countdown – April 3rd

A daily feature: Throughout the the election we will be producing a daily Campaign Countdown here with the key numbers from the latest reported polls, our polling averages, Commons seat spread betting figures, and main betting odds from the conventional betting markets. We are hoping to have live betting price feeds as we get closer to the day.

New Opinion Polls Reported: One new opinion poll this morning – from Communicate Research in the Independent on Sunday where the surveying was carried out from March 24-25th – so it is a week out of date.

Headline figures: LAB 40: CON 34: LD 16 .
“Certain to vote” LAB 39: CON 39: LD 12.

Latest Politicalbetting Polling Averages: These are based on the latest polls from the six pollsters that regularly cover UK elections divided between those that use telephone interview and those that do not.

Phone pollsters: LAB 39.5: CON 32.75: LD 19.25
Other pollsters: LAB 36: CON 35.5: LD 21

Spreadbetting prices Predicted number of Commons seats won at the Election – the total for an overall majority is 324. The spread with IG is fixed by the firm and no commission is charged on winnings. Spreadfair is a betting exchange and the prices quoted are those offered by other gamblers. The company takes a commission from the winnings.

IG IndexLAB 350-356: CON 198-203: LD 65-68: SNP 5.5-6: PC 4.5-5: RES 0.5-1: UKIP 0-0.5: DUP 7.5-8: SF 4.3-4.8: UUP 3 – 3.5: SDLP 1.8 -2.3
SpreadfairLAB 351- 353.1: CON 199-201: LD 66 –68: SNP 5.1 –5.7: PC 4.4 – 4.6: UKIP 0.3 – 0.4
Predicted turnout percentage:- IG Index 58-60%

Conventional Bookmakers/Betting Exchanges:- We feature here the best prices from the main “which party will win most seats” markets as well a a selection of interesting other prices. A full round-up is available here. Betting exchange prices are featured in italics.

Party wining most seats:- LAB 1/12 or 13/100: CON 15/2, 7.6/1: LD 100/1, 169/1

A note about Politicalbetting: This site is run as a hobby by myself and my son, Robert, with design input from his partner, Lucille. It is not a business but we do seek to defray at least some of our costs from commissions we receive from bookmakers when site users open accounts. If you are doing this then please mention Politicalbetting. While we endeavour to get our facts right at time of posting we can accept no responsibility for any errors.

Mike Smithson

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