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Making sense of Thursday night It is now possible to make sense of Thursday’s local election results. The projected vote shares for the three main parties, according to Rallings and Thrasher in the Sunday Times, were CON 39%, LAB 26%, LD 25%. This analysis covers more wards than that carried out for the BBC on election night, and produces a much more plausible figure for minor parties and independents (10%, as opposed to the BBC’s perennial 6-7%). It can therefore…

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What’s behind the increase in turnout? With Camp Brown stepping up the pressure on Lucky Tony the primary focus this post-election weekend is the Labour succession. Will the the not so coded calls for a “transition time-table” have any impact and bring the almost inevitable Brown leadership a little bit closer? It’s beginning to look that way and I’ve now closed down my betting position that Blair would make it until the end of next year. The big long-term question…

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Big winnings for those who acted fast I hope that many PBC regulars had a profitable Thursday for in the fortnight before the election there were what proved to be some amazing betting bargains to be had – all of them reported by contributors on the site. The best bet seems to have been that 10/1 that was available for a short time on the Lib Dems taking control of Richmond. This tightened sharply to 7/2 as PBC punters piled…

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Is the Cabinet re-shuffle enough? With breathtaking timing Lucky Tony has managed to dillute the bad overnight election news with his cabinet re-shuffle. From a situation where all the focus would be on yesterday’s 3rd place on votes and nearly 300 seat losses the bulletins tonight are mostly about his changes. But will this be enough to calm his party critics and allow Lucky Tony to complete most of his third term? Like him or loathe him you have to…

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New thread 0430 The BBC projection of the national vote share based on yesterday puts the Tories in their best position since before the ERM crisis in 1992. The shares are: CON 40: LAB 26: LD 27 .

Book Value to take over PB.C for a couple of days I’m going to be away at a conference on the banks of Loch Lomond for a couple of days and Philip Grant (Book Value) will be standing in as guest editor of PB.C. Thanks for giving me a break Philip. Whatever your allegiance whatever your party can I wish all the PB.C regulars who are candidates tomorrow the very best of luck and that you get the outcome you…

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Punters flee Labour and back the Tories The above chart shows how punters on the Betfair betting exchange are rating the chances of Labour and the Tories wininng most seats at the next General Election. It is based over time on nthe implied probability based on the best betting price. The current price is evens on Labour and 1.04/1 on the Tories – so a bet on both would bring you certain returns although you might have to wait for…

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Could the close of polls trigger concerted action against Blair? Just as the polls were closing at the end of local election day in May 2003 the Tory trade spokesman Crispin Blunt, resigned his front bench post in what appeared to be a planned and concerted move to bring down the then Tory leader, Ian Duncan Smith. The pundits had been predicting a very poor Tory performance in the elections and Blunt’s move appeared to be timed to coincide with…

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