Do we need to have active moderation? A few days I was round the pub with three fellow Lib Dems who I would describe as serious activists. These are the sort of guys who at election times think nothing of commuting 200-300 miles a day to help in seats where they believe they can make a difference. After we had got the first round in one of the group opened by saying “Come on guys – when is the Cameron…
Labour recover to 34% but the Lib Dems still stuck on 18% A day and a half after the Observer published outline details of this month’s Mori poll survey the pollster has now published full information on its site. So instead of the bare “Tories are 7% ahead” that the Observer reported we now have the full figures which are with comparisons on the pollster’s last survey at the end of May are:- CON 41% (nc): LAB 34%(+3): LD 18%…
Could Cameron or Brown have to rely on the DUP? Does Northern Ireland matter you may ask? Surely it’s just an obscure backwater that elects charming MP’s like Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness? Well maybe, but it’s important in that there are 18 Parliamentary seats in Northern Ireland. At the last election the split was: DUP 9: Sinn Fein 5: SDLP 3: UUP 1. Sinn Fein does not take its seats, so effectively there are currently 13 MP’s from Northern…
The 11/4 on Blair going this year looks a good bet? A week before May’s local elections I suggested that the then PR problems facing the party of John Prescott and Charles Clarke and the immigrant criminals being released row would actually be quite useful to Tony Blair as he sought to hang on to his job. The piece noted “the beauty of the current situation from Lucky’s (Tony’s) point of view is that when Labour is licking its wounds…
[This guest slot contribution has been submitted by Matthew Partridge who had been a strong and consistent defender of Tony Blair’s actions in Iraq and raises an issue that we have not covered on the site for some time – whether Labour will suffer ongoing damage from the war. I disagree with almost everything that Matthew writes and think that his conclusions about the electoral impact are wrong. After some deliberation I’ve decided to publish it because it is a…
How Would PR Affect Local Elections? From 2007, Scotland will conduct local elections, using the Single Transferable Vote, the system which is used in the Irish Republic, and Northern Ireland. The Single Transferable Vote is not a pure form of proportional representation. It is perfectly possible, for example, for one party to win an overall majority on 45% of the vote, using this system. It is however, a good deal more proportionate in its outcome than the existing first past…
Isn’t it all about image and being seen as a nice caring person? One of my favourite contributors on PB.C is David Kendrick who pops up several times a week to make the simple argument that policies and issues play little part in deciding elections. Everything is down to whether voters like the party leaderships and that is mostly determined by how they look, talk and present themselves. Certainly the 7% lead Tory lead recorded in today Indpendent “poll of…
Yet another poll shows the Lib Dems on the decline After yesterday’s Mori poll – which was actually the pollster’s survey for May, we now have the first of the June polls – from Populus in the Times. The figures, are with changes on a month ago, CON 37%(-1):LAB 34%(+4): LD18%(-2). After the May survey which was the first big move to the Tories I noted here “The interviews will have been taking place over the weekend while all the…