politicalbetting.com

But will Blaenau and Bromley be dismissed as just by-elections? By the tests set in my article just as the polls were closing the overnight by-elections brought terrible news for both Brown/Blair’s Labour and David Cameron’s Tories. They also showed that the Lib Dems are able to pack a huge punch in a Westminster by-election whichever party is defending. The straight politics make Labour’s results marginally, but only marginally, worse than the Tory performance in Bromley. For Brown-Blair’s party threw…

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It’s now down to 0.06/1 that Bob Neil will do it for the Conservatives After a long period when the only question about the Bromley betting was why punters were not rushing to pick up what was apparently free money on the Tories things have started to happen. The chart show the implied probability based on best betting prices on the Betfair betting exchange. At 3.55pm the prices were CON 0.06/1: LD 11/1. Mike Smithson

Test your skill in Double Carpet’s By-Election Competition With this Thursday’s by-elections in outer London and South Wales presenting the parties with their first major tests at the ballot box since May’s local elections, you are invited to make your predictions for Blaenau Gwent and Bromley & Chislehurst, and put your punditry skills to the test against the rest of the politicalbetting.com readers. To make for smooth running of the competition, please enter your predictions in the order set out…

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Where Do the Liberal Democrats go from here? Since 1997, the Liberal Democrats have regularly polled a national equivalent vote share of 25-30% in local elections, a very good performance historically. What must be frustrating for them is that this has led to no real increase in the proportion of council seats which they hold (around 20% of the overall total). This is because the Conservatives have recovered strongly in local elections over the same period. Throughout the 1980s and…

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“..Is 0.38/1 a good investment for part of my lump sum?” Last week I was emailed by JH who is considering whether to bet £10,000 from his pension on Gordon Brown. He’s just retired with an index linked pension based on his final salary and has been looking at ways of getting a good return from his tax free lump sum. JH has been following PB.C for some time and he had come to the conclusion that sometimes, such as…

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This thread is for comments that are not in keeping with my post of yesterday Grandad walloped again by TB at PMQ’s yesterday,also TB managed to highlight the garbage that’s put out in Lib Dem literature at election time. The ‘all things to all people’ stuff is wearing pretty thin and great that its being more & more exposed,on the other hand everyone knows the Lib Dems have a snowball’s chance in hell of ever forming a government so I…

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