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How the Minor Parties are Faring One theme which I have commented upon on several occasions is the increasing vote which is going to minor parties. Most opinion polls show “Others” on 10%+, with Communicate Research giving them more than 15%. I think it unlikely that their share in a general election would be as high as 15%, but that figure is certainly plausible in local elections. In May’s London Borough elections, for example, 16% voted for parties other than…

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Why shouldn’t Cameron be allowed to raise the succession at PMQs? In a move that could have big ramifications the Speaker, Michael Martin, came to Tony Blair’s aid at PMQs this lunch-time when the Tory leader asked about the Labour succession. Amidst extraordinary scenes Martin ruled that the Prime Minister could not be asked about the Labour leadership. According to the BBC report Cameron responded: “Mr Speaker are you honestly saying we cannot ask the prime minister of the country…”….

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Previewing the London Assembly Elections The London Assembly was established at the same time as the London Mayoralty. It is sometimes compared to the Greater London Council, although its powers are actually very limited by comparison. It has 25 members in total, of whom 14 are elected by first past the post, and 11 by a London-wide top up list, which allocates the remainder of the seats by a form of proportional representation. Each constituency covers two or three boroughs….

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Hi all, we seem to bre having a few problems with the database server today (you may see mySQL error messages). I’m working to get this all fixed as soon as possible, and hopefully the site will mostly be running as normal. Thanks, Robert

As a result of problems with Register.com we have had serious outages for most of the day. What normally happens is that the politicalbetting url takes you to Register.com which in turn points you to our server in Cambridge. For large parts of the day that has not been happening. I’ve been like a heroin addict desperately in need of a fix especially after such a surprising poll. The good news is that we are back. Thanks for your patience….

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Could the only black Senator make it all the way? Barack Obama, first tipped here when he was 50/1 in May 2005, has given a strong indication that he might run for the White House. According to the BBC Obama told a TV interviewer that “Given the responses I’ve been getting… I have thought about the possibility” and he said he would give the matter more thought after the mid-term vote. The Illionois Senator was recently featured on the cover…

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Will the 2003 invasion carry on being an issue after Tony has left? Yesterday’s extraordinary comments by the Head of the Army and the mounting daily death toll in Iraq are timely reminders that Labour’s decision to go to war in 2003, supported wholeheartedly by the Tories, will remain high on the UK political agenda. This weeks “revelations” from David Blunkett about Gordon Brown’s role and views ahead of the critical decisions in 2003 will add further to the debate…

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Why the North Matters to the Conservatives It’s often assumed that the North of England turned against the Conservative Party, under the leadership of Margaret Thatcher. This is, in fact, incorrect. In both 1983, and 1987, the Conservatives outpolled Labour across the North of England. A big swing away from the Conservatives took place in Liverpool, Manchester, and Newcastle, during the Thatcher years, but in other parts of the North, such as Bury, Bolton, Halifax, Bradford, and the Lancashire mill…

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