How good were you at predicting the past 12 months? Less than a fortnight to go and barring anything dramatic like a Tony Blair resignation the only issue still to be resolved in our “Predicting 2006” competition is the December ICM poll which should come out in the next day or so. Looking back on the entries that were posted here almost a year ago it is amazing how positive people were about the prospects for Charles Kennedy who actually…
The Chancellor’s price eases as honours-linked stories continue The Sunday papers won’t make pleasant reading this morning at either Number 10 or Number 11 Downing Street as journalists try to get their teeth into what is going on with the honours case and what this means for the Labour succession. For while coverage of Blair’s quizzing might have been limited on the day by initiating a large number of other stories on the day to “bury the bad news” this…
BBC Radio 4’s “World at One” are planning a feature on political betting and PBC during the holiday period – probably during the “slow news” period between Christmas and the New Year. I recorded a longish discussion a couple of days ago on the past twelve months and what’s likely to be coming up in 2007 – “will there be a Brown Bounce and if so will it be sustained?“; “how will French presidential battle turn out?“and “which candidates will…
Rod Crosby asks: “Can we measure the probability of such an outcome?” Electoral System: The first graph has been compiled from Anthony Wells’ data for the new constituency boundaries. For each percentage point the LibDems might reasonably score in the range 15-25%, the outcome of the Election has been calculated for plausible Conservative LEADS ranging from 0-11%. The concept of Swing implies that the difference between the main two parties is important while their absolute level of support is not….
The State of the Parties Since the start of September, there have been 74 local by-elections on principal authorities. Of these, 41 involved the three main parties, competing with each other. Overall, the Conservatives made a net gain of 5 seats, the Liberal Democrats made a net gain of 6, the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland and SNP a gain of 1 each, while Labour made a net loss of 5, Others/Independents made a net loss of 7, and the…
Punters now putting money on a later departure The news this afternoon that Prime Minister Tony Blair has been interviewed in the honours probe has sent the Blair laving date markets moving. The fact that he was not interviewed under caution and he was not accompanied by a lawyer is causing punters to take the view that his time at Number 10 will probably go on until the early summer. Latest betting is here. Mike Smithson
It’s not about politics but about lies, deceit and facing up to the truth In 2004 my brother, John Smithson, won a BAFTA award for the climbing drama, Touching the Void, which continues to attract interest. This weekend his new movie, Deep Water, is released at selected cinemas throughout the UK. It’s a true story that has many parallels with one or two leading figures in contemporary politics. For in 1966 the yachtsman, Donald Crowhurst, sought to deal with his…
Focus on St. Albans Arguably, St. Albans ought to be a Liberal Democrat Parliamentary seat. For years, prior to 1997, the Liberal Democrats achieved a clear second place in the seat, and by 1996, held 40 out of 58 seats on the District Council. Boundary changes, in 1996, removed all of Harpenden from the constituency, and with it, a huge proportion of the Conservative majority. The Liberal Democrats were favourites to win in 1997 However, Labour surprised everybody by breaking…