How Will the Liberal Democrats Do on May 3rd? I’m reluctant to comment on this subject, as there are a couple of posters to this site who consider that I display my inherent Conservative bias by refusing to predict anything other than stunning success for the Liberal Democrats in local elections. Nevertheless, it is only right that I do so, given that I have posted about Labour and the Conservatives in the past two weeks. The Liberal Democrats’ performance in…
I’ve just recorded a 30 minute programme on my book, The Political Punter, which will be shown tonight at 7.30 pm on the 18 Doughty Street channel. I had a good discussion with fellow blogger, Iain Dale, who presents the programme. The book itself will be launched at the PB party on April 17th. It can be pre-ordered from here. UPDATE – The programme can be view by clicking this link. Mike Smithson
What behind these big shifts in opinion? I’ve just come across some fascinating data on the Ipsos-Mori website which might prove to be highly significant at the next election. For as the charts show there has been a significant move by public sector workers away from Labour in a relatively short time. If they don’t return that could present a big challenge for Gordon Brown. For after the big expansion of the public sector jobs under Gordon’s management of the…
These are the figures, just published on the Ipsos-Mori website, of the first national political poll by the firm since January. As is usual the headline figures are restricted to those “certain to vote”. It should be noted that the survey involving 1,983 adults aged 18+ at 176 sampling points across Great Britain was conducted face-to-face on 9-15 March 2007. So the poll is a little bit old and took place before the the last CR, ICM and YouGov surveys….
Miliband tightens and Brown eases after reports of Blair’s backing This is the front page of the Observer this morning which has led to big changes in the Labour leadership betting. Tony Blair, according to the paper, is telling allies that if the environment secretary stands against Brown then “he would win”. According to an unnamed minister Blair said of Miliband “he really has got to want it… He really has to go for it.” The news comes on the…
Will Cameron’s hopes of a deal be dashed by the LD membership? In recent days the Tories have stepped up the rhetoric in their bid to win over Lib Dem supporters and also pave the way for a possible post-election working arrangement with the party. But is this doomed to fail because of the political make-up of the ultimate sovereign body within the party – the membership. The above poll finding is from a YouGov survey of 406 Lib Dem…
Why Aren’t the Conservatives Doing Better? This may seem an odd question to ask at a time when the Conservative Party has enjoyed several years of steady advance in local government, and now holds almost 40% of council seats in Great Britain, for the first time since 1987. The answer, I think, is really the mirror of my article of last week “The Strange Death of Labour England.†In previous years of local government success, the Conservatives could expect to…
Will the income tax move turn the ratings round – and will it last? After going through some pretty torrid times in recent weeks Labour must be feeling pretty chipper about Gordon Brown’s eleventh budget and must be hoping that there will be a reversal in the polls. For the announcement of the 20% basic tax rate came as a real shock and will be leading the bulletins and much of the news coverage for the rest of the day….