New poll has her neck and neck with Sarkozy With just four days to go before the French Presidential election a new poll has Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal and Right-wing front runner Nicolas Sarkozy both on 50% should the two of the make the run off of the top two candidates. Sarkozy, however, is still in the lead for the first round of voting. The pollster, CSA, has been giving slightly better figures for the Socialist candidate than the other…
Do his Brown coronation calls look like sour grapes? One of the features that distinguishes leaders from normal politicians is their ability to seize the moment and go for it when the opportunity occurs. It is about having the courage to risk failure and take your chance however remote. If by any chance that Gordon doesn’t get it this time then he might rue the moment after Neil Kinnock stepped down when he stood aside for John Smith. Michael Portillo…
Tuesday 17th April – National Liberal Club – 3pm – 7pm Harriman House, publishers of Mike’s book, are offering a bottle of champagne to whoever gets closest to guessing the amount of the advance to Tony Blair for his political memoirs. Entry is free. Just email me at arklebar@talktalk.net. If you want a copy of the book to collect at the Launch, you can get it for the knock down price of £10 by contacting Tom Orchard through this link….
A Guide to the Local Elections (Part I) – The Background On May 3rd, approximately 10,500 council seats (including by-elections) will be contested in England, and another 1,100 in Scotland. In England, 154 District Councils and 25 Unitary Authorities have all-out elections, while the 36 Metropolitan Boroughs, 20 Unitary Authorities, and 77 Districts are electing one third of their seats. The 32 Scottish Authorities have all out elections, although they will change from first past the post, to election by…
Will Bescanot prevent Sego getting to the final run-off? This is Olivier Besancenot, the 33 year old postman who might have a crucial part to play in the French presidential election a week on Sunday. He’s standing for the Ligue communiste révolutionnaire (LCR), the French section of the Fourth International and five years ago he gained 1.2 million votes or 4.25% of the vote. This was several times the gap that the far right leader, Le Pen, had over the…
When a 1% Tory polling deficit became an 8% lead On the eve of the fifteenth anniversary of John Major’s shock general election victory in 1992 the BBC Parliament channel is devoting most of its bank holiday schedule to showing the BBC’s results programme from that night. It’s available online as well as via Freeview, satellite and cable. It starts at 9am and is repeated at 2pm and 7pm. Even though it’s a decade and a half ago Nick Sparrow,…
How a show of humility could make Brown’s succession a certainty I’ve just come across this interesting article by Michael Tomasky in the “American Prospect” describing the “air of overdog entitlement” which he believes is damaging Hillary Clinton’s campaign for the nomination. In it Tomasky praises the quality of humility that characterised her campaign to be a US senator and contrasts that with the way she, and particularly her team, are approaching the drive for the nomination. He goes on:…
Steady as she goes This is an extremely tricky week for punting on the Index. It is the Parliamentary Easter recess, so there is little publicity for any but a few of the main players. Iran is dominating the news and it’s hard to see how that is going to play over the next seven days. Pensions are playing badly for Brown but a safe sell has been pre-empted by a sharp price adjustment by Anthony Wells, who stuck him…