Does the Lib Dem switch to Labour look permanent? One of the features that I focus on when the detailed data from ICM and CR polls comes out is how votes are churning between the parties. Both firms ask how respondents voted last time and both present their data in a way that gives some clues. The latest data from this week’s survey for the Guardian has some encouraging short-term news for the Tories but does raise the question about…
Your chance to vote for those who have enriched the site the most This is the first round of voting for the PBC Posters of the Year. Please place your votes before 1830 BST tomorrow to make it count. Everybody, where they post on the site or not, is entitled to vote in each of the categories. Tomorrow there will be the final part – the Overall PBC Poster of the Year. The top two in each of the four…
These are the nominations for the 2006/2007 PBC Posters of the Year election. First round voting will begin this evening and will last for twenty four hours. The two that top the ballot in each section will go forward to the overall PBC Post of the Year Election which will be published on Thursday evening. Two people, SeanT and JackW don’t naturally feature in any of the first round sections and because of their prominence I have decided that they…
Take part in our simple “poll” An issue that’s often raised on the site is what is the political make-up of those who visit PBC. So to find out and to test some new online polling software I’ve created the following “poll”. This is not a voting intention question – it asks for the party you most associate with not who you would vote for if there was a general election tomorrow. Many PBC users, I guess would vote tactically…
Your chance to nominate and vote With the end of the holiday season and the September party conferences a new political year is about to start. But before the old one, 2006/07 finally closes I thought that it would be a good moment to celebrate those who have enriched our discussions, and in some cases helped us make winning bets, through their contributions to the site’s discussion threads during the past year. Who, for you, has been the Poster of…
Is this putting the Tories back in the game? In an excellent post yesterday my nomination for political blogger of the year, the Labour-leaning Paul Linford, produced a potted history of crimes which, he argued have changed the political consensus. Running through Jamie Bulger in 1993 which arguably gave the then shadow home secretary, Tony Blair, heightened prominence, Linford touches on the political impact of the Dunblane massacre in 1995, the Philip Lawrence murder which is back in the headlines…
Would the train incident thwart any come-back plan? It’s August and yesterday we got what looks like becoming a hardy annual in the run-up to the Lib Dem conference – the Charles Kennedy come-back story. This year’s has been sparked off by his comments yesterday at Scotland’s “Festival of Politics” after he was asked if he was “..going to be the comeback kid?” According to the BBC report he replied: “When you have been the leader of a national political…
In the absence of any polls, particularly from the Lib Dem unfriendly YouGov, there’s been a change in the favourite on Betfair’s general election outcome market. The chart shows the betting odds converted into implied probabilities. The current favoured outcome, at 1.48/1 is a hung parliament with a Labour majority at 3/2. A Tory overall majority is out at nearly 4/1. I’ve just heard that Ipsos-Mori, in addition to their Sun poll a fortnight ago, will be doing their standard…