In the absence of any polls, particularly from the Lib Dem unfriendly YouGov, there’s been a change in the favourite on Betfair’s general election outcome market.
The chart shows the betting odds converted into implied probabilities. The current favoured outcome, at 1.48/1 is a hung parliament with a Labour majority at 3/2. A Tory overall majority is out at nearly 4/1.
I’ve just heard that Ipsos-Mori, in addition to their Sun poll a fortnight ago, will be doing their standard monitor for August from their massive 2,000 sample face to face survey. This means that we should be getting five separate polls from all five firms that test UK political opinion in the space of eight days.
How will the chart look after all of that?