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All sorts of rumours are going round tonight about big poll changes following Cameron’s big speech yesterday and the Tory conference. Ben Brogan in the Mail reports this: “…there are three polls out later – YouGov for Channel Four, Populus in the Times and ICM in the Guardian – all of which show Labour’s lead has dropped significantly (YouGov has it down to just 4 points apparently). I happily acknowledge that I may be about to be proved spectacularly wrong,…

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How will the post conference polls look? Yesterday’s publication by Mori of a poll taken in the immediate aftermath of Brown’s conference speech is a timely reminder of the polling power of the saturation media coverage that such an event provides. That survey had Labour 13% ahead – nearly double the 7% lead that the same pollster had found a couple of days later. The instant poll by YouGov after Brown’s speech came up with an 11% margin though that…

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The Tory leader, David Cameron, started his conference speech in Blackpool a few minutes ago. What do you think. Please paste post your views on this thread. Mike Smithson

Unpublished survey shows scale of Labour’s lead An Ipsos-Mori poll where the fieldwork finished last Wednesday and so took in a large part of reaction to the Labour conference and Brown’s speech has just been published on the firm’s website. It shows a margin for Labour of 13%. It is important to stress that this survey pre-dated the Mori poll that appeared in the Observer on Sunday that had Labour 7% ahead. What this newly published survey does show is…

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Is Davis the person the party would turn to after Cameron? It used to be that the highlight of Tory conferences, aside from the leader’s speech, was the appearance of the person responsible for home affairs. Crime and the control of criminals are issues that touch a raw nerve with Tories and the party expects stout and robust leadership on the issue. This afternoon’s appearance by David Davis was even more poignant because if the party decided, as has become…

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Is this part of the election countdown? Most of the focus of Brown’s Iraq visit has been on it all being a smart diversionary tactic to draw attention away from the Tory conference in Blackpool. Well that might partially be the case but could it also be a clearing of the decks of negative Labour issues ahead of an early general election? A key group of voters that Labour strategists are concerned about are those who switched to the Lib…

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What if a million people were unable to vote? One of the issues that is emerging about an early election is coming from the Association of Election Administrators – the body that represents those charged with running elections. Their chief executive, John Turner, has been popping up everywhere in the past twenty four hours making the same points – that because of the administrative arrangements it might be difficult staging a general election where those entitled to vote can vote….

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What happened when Wilson went early with a 7% lead If there is one past general election that might worry Gordon it is 1970. Harold Wilson, the prime minister, did not have to go in the June and could easily have waited until the following year. Bob Worcester, the Mori founder who was our guest this morning, has noted that when Wilson decided to go Labour had a lead of poll lead of 7%. Wilson decided to take the gamble…

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