Who’ll be most relieved that it’s Nick? Wow – what a close margin? Who could have predicted that? Only five weeks ago I entered into a wager with Observer for £500 at even money that Huhne would get more than the 42% that he achieved in 2006. Well that bet is won. (Observer – I do appreciate that we need to find a way for you to pay me without you revealing your identity). Even when I entered into that…
Are we witnessing a dramatic change of fortunes for Clinton? There’s little doubt that one of the most spectacular changes of fortune ever in UK politics was the dramatic move against Gordon Brown in the first week in October. From a situation where a big general election victory looked certain Brown suddenly started to look like a loser and since then it has got progressively worse. The question for those betting on the 2008 White House Race is whether the…
Was Gordon Brown Right to Back Out? It’s hard to imagine that two months ago, Labour were leading the Conservatives by 10-13% in opinion polls, on the back of a highly successful party conference, and momentum for an early election appeared unstoppable. Yet, instead of calling an election at, or straight after, his party conference, Gordon Brown waited for the Conservative Party to have their conference, enabling them to regain the initiative. Since then of course, very little has gone…
Morus considers the runners and riders in the betting market Early in 2007, shortly before his 75th birthday as required, Cormac Murphy-O’Connor, the Cardinal-Archbishop of Westminster, tendered his resignation to Pope Benedict XVI. The response, whilst not unexpected, was not as warm as he might have hoped – he was asked to stay on until the Pope chooses otherwise. It is expected that His Holiness will indicate his preference for a change at Westminster Cathedral within the next 12 months….
Times poll has Con 40 (+4), Lab 32 (-5), LD 16 (0) A Populus poll in the Times today confirms that the Conservatives are still holding a significant lead over Labour, with an 8-point advantage. Fieldwork for the poll was carried out over the weekend. The poll also shows that the big two parties are now level pegging on the economy, with Labour a single point ahead, while the Conservatives also have a 4-point lead on the taxes/public spending issue….
Stories from today’s newspapers Firstly, very best wishes to Mike for a speedy recovery and thanks to everyone for their support and comments on the previous thread. I’ll aim to keep pb running in Mike’s absence, but would welcome any guest articles that people might like to contribute on any aspect of UK/international politics or betting, or indeed anything relevant on finance and economics. In particular, would any of the site’s many US experts like to contribute a beginner’s guide…
I was admitted to hospital overnight (nothing too serious) but I’m likely to be out of action for a few days. If Paul Maggs or my son Robert want to post or just launch open threads that will keep the discussions going that will be great.
How “certainty to vote” is driving the polls The above table has been reproduced from the full data set from yesterday’s ICM survey for the News of the World which showed that Labour was 11% behind. This highlights how those surveyed responded when asked how likely, on a scale of 1-10, it was that they would vote. The columns show how supporters of the various parties responded and also included is a breakdown based on what people said they did…