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Mandelson makes a surprise return in Cabinet reshuffle The big story this morning is the unexpected news that Peter Mandelson is set to return from Brussels and commence his third stint in Cabinet, this time as Business Secretary with a seat in the Lords. Elsewhere, John Hutton moves from Business to replace Des Browne at Defence, while Geoff Hoon takes over at Transport from the departing Ruth Kelly. Margaret Beckett returns in a “cabinet enforcer” role, Ed Miliband will head…

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Have the markets been right to be optimistic? So it’s back to another nail-biter over the bail-out bill – described at the weekend by the Republican Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, as a “crap sandwich”. This time it will be in the senate where there’s said to be more support than in the House of Representatives. The markets seem to be assuming that it will go through – given the way stocks have recovered. We’ll see because if it doesn’t then…

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Will experience triumph over calls for change? Given the lead-up to this afternoon’s speech – the partial recovery of Labour in the polls and the global financial crisis – Cameron had one overwhelming objective: to look and sound like the prime minister in waiting. This was all about setting the tone and style right. For unlike almost any other event during the political year the party leader’s main conference speech is the one that gets extra special treatment by the…

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What happens when you publish a voodoo poll Every so often people come on the site with news of an online poll in one outlet or another and seek to suggest that they are representative of public opinion. Well they are not for the simple reason that those who bother to take part are self-selecting and by definition not representative of the electorate. Also if you have several computers or are smart enough you can vote as often as you…

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What do we make of no conference bounce? …..meanwhile, away from the news from Washington, the September ComRes poll for the Independent is just out on the firm’s web-site and the figures are featured above. When it is published in the paper in morning it will show comparisons with the newspaper’s August survey – not the last poll from the firm that was completed just before Labour’s gathering in Manchester. That’s a pity because the only comparisons that really matter…

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What will the latest ComRes poll have in store? I’ve just been told that there’s a new ComRes national voting intention poll which will be published tonight. The last survey from the pollster, taken straight after the Lib Dem conference but before Labour’s gathering started, had the worst figures for the Tories in months. The totals then were CON 39%: LAB 27%: LD 21%. If ComRes have followed their normal pattern then fieldwork would have started on Friday and continued…

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