So what changes on 2005 will we see overnight?
The result thread? I am still knackered from Tuesday/Wednesday so won’t be staying up for the result. The betting should continue right until the declaration. Cheers, Mike Smithson
Glenrothes: Little sign of punter support for Labour
Could there still be a shock? The chart above shows the best Labour betting price expressed as an implied probability over the past 24 hours and as can be seen there has been a steady decline. Generally on by-election days the party campaign HQs start to get a feel in the early evening of how well they are doing and this often is reflected in the betting. Alas that has yet to happen though it does seem to have bottomed…
Have punters got Labour’s chances about right?
Will it be a humiliation for Gord? As has been reported here before the date for the Glenrothes by-election was originally fixed for tomorrow because it was hoped that in the US election aftermath then yet another Labour defeat would hardly get noticed. Well things have changed since the date was set and we are now experiencing the renaissance of Gordon following his actions in the bank bailout crisis. Although this has hhad hardly any impact on the voting intention…
Was Obama’s community organiser background his secret weapon?
Did this make the difference in the key states? One of the interesting conversations I got into at the PB election session last night was on the importance to the election of Obama’s early career as a community organiser – something that many GOP commentators have been quick to deride. For his instinctive understanding of how to mobilise the weakest and most vulnerable members of society has, surely, played a key part in leading such a successful campaign. Looking back…
And now a result
It’s President Obama Mike Smithson
How long until we know for sure?
What time should we be expecting it to be all over? We all know that tonight could be a long night – I’ve taken tomorrow off work, and am not expecting to sleep before breakfast. We are happily ensconsed at a trading floor in Islington, eating fine take-away, and drinking beer, whilst eagerly scrutinising the exit polls (with extreme skepticism) and leaks from the field. We have a giant map, drawn by yours truly on the white board, and PB.com’s…
Is Indiana the pointer to something big?
Is this being premature? As can be seen above the Daily Express has called it for Barack Obama even though only a minute fraction of votes have been counted. But voting in one of the early states, Indiana, is pointing to a pssible Obama victory which would suggest a result above many people’s predictions. There is, however, a long way to go. Within the next hour we should start to get a good picture of where this is going. If…
Welcome to election night on PB?
Voting in the first states to close their polling booths is due to end at 11pm UK time – and at that point we can expect to see some firm information from the exit polls. The networks will start calling states based on the the polls and early results from that time. So in a very short period we should get some feel about the possible outcome. If the main PB site goes down tonight then please switch to PB…