Could this make it “game on” for a 2009 election The long-awaited Guardian ICM poll for December is just out and has the Tories down from 45% in November to 37% which must put more force behind the early election band-wagon But, as predicted, the Lib Dems are up to 19% and Labour’s share, whilst still up 3, is still down at 33% – which is the lowest of all the current polling. Critically these numbers put the Tories below…
Would they be better off on Nick Clegg at 1/7? On a day when the over-payment of some state pensions is making the news I’ve just been asked by a retired solicitor in his mid-60s whether I could recommend a “sure-fire” political bet that would given him a better return than the miserable two and a bit percent that he now gets on his savings – but was also as risk-free ask you can get. Well I certainly wouldn’t, as…
Can we redeem ourselves with the ICM predictions? Tonight I thought that we would be discussing the final ICM poll of the year from the longest running series in British politics – in the Guardian. Alas it seems that we’ll have to wait until tomorrow. This survey was singled out almost exactly a year ago for the PB Big Prediction for 2008. Just look at our New Year’s Eve 2007 thread when we we ran an online poll in which…
Will the GOP race be down to Palin against Huntsman? Exactly a month ago today I made my first bet of the 2012 White House Race – £50 at 200/1 on Jon Huntsman, the young governor of Utah for President. Since then the Ladbrokes price on my man has tightened to 33/1 with 20/1 on him getting the Republican nomination. In the meantime there’s news that the highly tipped governor of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal, is making it clear that he…
Is Portillo right about the Conservatives and Clarke? The Sunday Times reports that the Cabinet is split over the proposed third runway at Heathrow, with Hilary Benn warning that the expansion should be rejected unless noise and air pollution are dramatically cut. The Environment Secretary gives an interview to the paper who suggest that the “similarities between the father and his cabinet minister son are becoming increasingly apparent”. ST columnist Michael Portillo argues that “if the Tories lose the election…
CONSERVATIVES 41% (+1) LABOUR 35% (-1) LIB DEMS 15% (+1) Will this bring relief to Team Cameron The second poll of the night, by YouGov for the Sunday Times, adds further to the confused picture of what is happening to public opinion about the general election. For the online pollster is reporting a two point increase in the Tory lead with Cameron’s party still above 40%. It also, contrary to ComRes, has the Lib Dems advancing even if only by…
Are his shadows keeping him on his toes? Here’s a statement that might not meet with universal agreement on the site: in recent weeks, I’ve been rather impressed by Ed Balls’ performance as Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families. In spite of the fact that Ipsos MORI’s issue tracker shows Education mattering less than at any time since Labour came to power, the Secretary of State has recently secured additional funding from the Treasury for underachieving schools, agreed…
Would that be a better way to beat the Soup-Dragon? Sad news this week, with the death of children’s animation maestro Oliver Postgate who passed away on Monday. Postgate was the creator of such classics as Bagpuss, Ivor the Engine and Noggin the Nog, but his enduring legacy will be the surreal and innovative world of the Clangers. I cannot take credit for being the first to wonder whether a political article could be crafted from the inspiration of Postgate’s…