What if Morley & Outwod saw the same swing? The video is the famous one of Michael Portillo’s result at the May 1997 general election. The CON>LAB swing was an amazing 17.1% which was way above the uniform national swing and it was by far the most unexpected result of the night. The victim, of course, was a high profile cabinet minister who was being talked of as post-election party leader. For the thing about the uniform swing is that…
Spectator Coffee House Is Gordon reconciled to going down with the ship? The Coffee House blog has picked up a fascinating quote from the FT about a Number 10 source which could change the whole dynamic of the next ten months – Brown thinks he’s going to be defeated. It reports: “One Downing Street insider said the prime minister was more relaxed because he now realised that he was certain to lose the next election and was powerless to defy…
Millais “Autumn Leaves” (Wikimedia Commons) What will the “season of mists” hold? So what will the “season of mists and mellow fruitfulness” hold for domestic and international politics – and where might you be investing some of your hard-earned cash on the betting markets? The usual caveats of political prediction apply – and as David Herdson rightly reminds us in this morning’s piece on Iran, it’s Macmillan’s “Events, dear boy, events” which are always liable to blow prognostications off course….
Who is the mystery cabinet minister? The following cryptic paragraph from leftward-leaning blogger, Paul Linford, has intrigued me for the past twenty four hours. Talking of, inevitably, the Labour succession, he writes: “..The plan, or so we are asked to believe, is for a leading Blairite Cabinet minister to stage what is being termed a “nuclear resignation†in the middle of Labour’s conference this autumn which would force Mr Brown out within hours.” Just who of the present cabinet could…
Is anyone actually in charge? You know it’s silly season when, thanks to the Sky News website, you review the front pages of 10 national newspapers, and none of them have the same story. The Sun runs with an interview with Peter Andre, the Mail and the Express compete for outrage on different fronts, the Mirror and the Star both lead with celebrity drivel, and the Guardian has a potential health scare about anti-depressants against the Telegraph’s shocking news that…
The fireworks starts after about 1 minute 50 seconds.
Is it all doom and gloom? I’ve just accepted an invitation to give my thoughts on the general election outcome at a fringe event at the Labour conference in Brighton. This will be the first time I’ve been and I like the idea that it’s at somebody else’s expense. There’s a similar session at the Tory conference the following week. What I’ve been pondering is what on earth can I say in Brighton that is not going to go down…