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Category: General Election

Betting on a David Miliband return could make sense

Betting on a David Miliband return could make sense

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Having left British politics a few years ago, David Miliband is making a comeback of sorts, less than a week after Labour’s conference in September (and less than a month after Labour’s new leader has been elected) as he will be the keynote speaker at the Institute of Directors’ annual convention. I get the feeling, after declining to remove both Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband before they led their party to defeat, the next Labour Leader might not be so fortunate…

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Polling Matters/PB Podcast: Professor John Curtice discusses the Exit Poll

Polling Matters/PB Podcast: Professor John Curtice discusses the Exit Poll

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In a slightly shorter version of the Polling Matters podcast (14 mins 23 secs) Keiran discusses the exit poll with Professor John Curtice. We discuss how it was done and how Professor Curtice felt when he realised it was about to say something very different to what the opinion polls had said. Keiran Pedley is an Associate Director at GfK NOP and tweets about polling and politics in a personal capacity at @keiranpedley

The final spread levels on general election day had a CON lead of 19 seats, 80 seats short of what actually happened

The final spread levels on general election day had a CON lead of 19 seats, 80 seats short of what actually happened

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May 7th 2015: The afternoon when CON seat buyers panicked CON lead on @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 spreads down 6 today – now 19 seats pic.twitter.com/l3SVpTf2cj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2015 A lot has been written about the predictive nature of betting markets – a theory I do not subscribe to. Just look at how the Commons seats spreads moved on general election day and the comparison with the actual result. My understanding is that there was a huge panic…

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CON takes 12% lead in ComRes/Mail poll which uses new methodology to deal with turnout

CON takes 12% lead in ComRes/Mail poll which uses new methodology to deal with turnout

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ComRes/Mail chart of its 1st post GE15 poll with new methodology pic.twitter.com/3Y92PalA8w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 4, 2015 ComRes chart showing impact of its new "voter turnout model" pic.twitter.com/r3aqagDiuI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 4, 2015 In its first post GE15 phone survey for the Daily Mail ComRes is reporting a 12% CON lead. In an attempt to learn the lessons of May 7th the firm has developed a new Vote Turnout Model which seeks to refine the standard…

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This morning’s MUST READ: the Guardian account of how it all went wrong for LAB/EdM

This morning’s MUST READ: the Guardian account of how it all went wrong for LAB/EdM

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There’s an extraordinarily comprehensive account by Patrick Wintour in the Guardian this morning of how right up to the moment the exit poll was published at 10pm on May 7th that Ed and his team really believed he was about to become PM. The report opens: “This is the story of how the election defeat came about, based on extensive interviews with many of Miliband’s closest advisers. It is a story of decisions deferred, of a senior team divided, and…

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If LAB’s polling gap with CON had throughout been 6% worse than it was Miliband would have been replaced

If LAB’s polling gap with CON had throughout been 6% worse than it was Miliband would have been replaced

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YouGov monthly averages 2013-15 What kept him in place were LAB’s good voting intention numbers The table above shows the YouGov monthly averages from its daily polls for the period 2013-2015. These numbers are being highlighted to make a statement about all the pollsters – that for much of the last parliament Labour enjoyed substantial leads and it was only in recent months that this started to decline. These voting intention shares were being recorded in poll and after poll…

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PB/Polling Matters Podcast: What does Labour do next?

PB/Polling Matters Podcast: What does Labour do next?

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Polling Matters is an independent, non partisan podcast providing, in conjunction with PB, expert polling news and political analysis in the aftermath of the 2015 General Election. This week, host Keiran Pedley discusses why Labour lost and what’s next for the party featuring interviews with Lord Foulkes and Professor John Curtice and analysis from regular Polling Matters contributors Rob Vance and Leo Barasi. Keiran tweets about polling and politics at @keiranpedley

How Scotland and the LD collapse almost completely reverse the bias in the electoral system

How Scotland and the LD collapse almost completely reverse the bias in the electoral system

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The dramatic shift in Britain’s political landscape As we all know one of the constants in British politics over more than a quarter of a century has been that the electoral system has been “biased” towards Labour. Essentially for a given vote share the red team will have more MPs than the blue one. Well the big news from May 7th is that that is all over and now the Tories will get more seats for an equal vote share…

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