The GE2020 choice won’t be DC or JC Last night we saw the release of the monthly ComRes phone poll for the Daily Mail showing the CON lead down 5 to 9%. There was much focus on best PM figures showing Cameron 24% ahead of the new LAB leader. One figure that stood out was that 26% of LAB voters in the survey chose Cameron rather than their new leader. The only problem here is that as we all know…
ICM phone polled in the 20 most marginal Labour target seats  (19 Tory and 1 Lib Dem) on behalf of The Sun on Sunday. This found Labour up 4% since May to 42% and the Tories unchanged on 39%. This represents a Con to Lab swing of 2.1%. This would deprive the Tories of their majority. Though on this swing Labour would only take seventeen target seats at the election, 77 fewer than what they need to have a majority. The fieldwork…
As far as Dave need worry, it’s still Europe that matters most For all the difficulties that have beset Jeremy Corbyn in his first week in charge, when it comes to parliamentary votes, it’s the PM rather than the Leader of the Opposition who should worry. Yes, a more effective whipping operation on the tax credit vote last week would have reduced rather than doubled the government majority but the government would still have won – and a government win…
Labour need to stop piling up votes in their safe English seats Looking at the chart above we can see that in England Labour did best where it didn’t need to and the Tories did best where they did need to do well. In England overall there was a swing of 1.1% from the Tories to Labour but in the crucial battle ground of the fifty most marginal Tory held seats there was a swing of 0.9% FROM Labour to…
The Exit poll. 10pm May 5th 2005 Will Corbyn make the red-team unelectable? AS JEREMY CORBYN’s LAB leader odds are cut to their shortest yet at 2/9 (stake £9 for potential £2 profit) by William Hill, the bookies have also opened a market on when Labour will next achieve an overall majority government – and make between 2026-30 their 5/2 favourite – offering just 3/1 that it will not happen before 2031. Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe said ‘With so many…
Basing your electoral strategy on appealing to non-voters is like trying to sell cars to people who don't drive http://t.co/CpyWEYxRts — David Boothroyd (@220_d_92_20) August 28, 2015 If you couldn’t be arsed last May then the chances are that it will be the same next time It’s a seductive strategy that all parties try from time to time – make going for non-voters the main strategy but it is a wrong one. I’d argue that it is easier to persuade…
Improvement from such a low base should be easier I’m not attaching too much importance to voting intention polls at the moment. Firstly we are still waiting for the review by the British Polling Council of what went wrong with the May 7th surveys. That is due out in March and is likely to make important proposals about the way polls are conducted Then there’s the fact that that neither of the two main parties is currently being led by…
The shambolic nature of the process could be as damaging as the outcome I have long been of the view that the most important message a party needs to get over in an election is that it can offer competent government. That was how the Tories managed to succeed on May 7th and why they achieved a majority, against all the odds. The Lynton Crosby line repeated so much during the campaign was that the choice was between competence and…