ICM marginals poll finds the Tories losing their majority

ICM marginals poll finds the Tories losing their majority

house of commons

ICM phone polled in the 20 most marginal Labour target seats  (19 Tory and 1 Lib Dem) on behalf of The Sun on Sunday. This found Labour up 4% since May to 42% and the Tories unchanged on 39%. This represents a Con to Lab swing of 2.1%. This would deprive the Tories of their majority. Though on this swing Labour would only take seventeen target seats at the election, 77 fewer than what they need to have a majority.

The fieldwork for this poll was Tuesday to Friday of this week gone, so not the optimal time for neither Corbyn or Labour. This polling might come as a shock for those who thought the only uncertainty at the next election is the size of the Tory majority.

Martin Boon of ICM said

the small swing could mean Labour retrieving a few Conservative-held seats, including Gower, two seats in Plymouth, and at a push Cardiff North and Nick Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam

But he added: “It’s not good enough – and could even be as good as it gets.”

I have a few caveats on this poll. As usual this is only one poll, the other major caveat is that this polling is in the seats Labour hope to gain in 2020, we need to see some polling in the marginal seats Labour hold as well. Lest we forget that in May 2015 when it came to England & Wales the Tories made nearly as many gains from Labour as they lost to Labour.


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